The extensive fires in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest could be more closely connected with agricultural expansion linked to the US trade war with China than it may first appear.

Brazilian farmers look set to take on the opportunity that has opened up on the back of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on Chinese imports to the US. China then slapped a 25% tariff on US soya beans. Brazilian farmers aim to satisfy Chinese demand for cheap protein. But given the continued level of fires, what cost is this coming at to the environment?

African swine fever outbreaks across China have also killed over a million pigs, cutting demand for soya in the world’s top pig producer

Figures for the first half of the year show that China, the largest importer of soya, has slashed its purchases of soya in response to Trump’s tariffs. For the first six months of this year, China imported 38.27m tonnes of soya beans, down 14.7% from the same period last year.

African swine fever outbreaks across China have also killed over a million pigs, cutting demand for soya in the world’s top pig producer.

For the first six months of this year, the US, which is the world’s largest producer of soya, supplied 15% of soya imports to China, down 58% on the same period last year. That has left it more dependent on Brazilian soya to take up the slack.

Brazilian opportunity

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro sees an opportunity for Brazilian agriculture, a sector which accounts for 25% of GDP and 16% of the workers. He is pledging to open up the rainforest to more development and agriculture.

Brazil is a big country, just 10% smaller than the entire European continent. Almost two-thirds of its land area is given over to forests including the rainforest, a quarter to grassland and about 10% to arable cropping.

Today Brazil is not only feeding itself, but is helping feed the world’s growing population – particularly in China

However, in a short period of time Brazil has come from a place in the 1960s when it was unable to feed itself to become one of the most food-secure countries in the world, but also one of the largest agricultural producers in the world. Today Brazil is not only feeding itself, but is helping feed the world’s growing population – particularly in China.

Brazil has become the world’s largest producer of sugar, orange juice and coffee, the second largest producer of soya, beef and poultry and the world’s largest exporter of each of these commodities.

Trade policy transformation

During the 1970s and part of the 1980s, subsidised credit was the most important instrument of domestic support for farmers in Brazil.

By the middle of the 1980s, the emphasis on credit diminished, and domestic support was mostly through price support mechanisms, where the government built stocks of a number of products.

In the beginning of the 1990s, Brazil abandoned protectionism in favour of a more liberal stance in trade policy.

It saw an opportunity to channel its natural resources into productive agriculture. This set the country off on a 40-year journey of developing agriculture.

Unrivalled agricultural expansion

The country’s arable production in particular has increased significantly: in 40 years, grain and fibre production has increased by 325%.

How has this been possible? While there are a number of factors, expansion has mainly been driven by clearing scrub and forests and making it into productive farmland.

Over the last 25 years, Brazil lost around 10 acres of forest every minute

Figures from the OECD show that over the last 25 years, Brazil has lost more than 134m acres of forest to increased arable and grass cropping. So while forests make up 60% of Brazil’s total land, it still lost five-and-half million acres of forest per year, roughly a quarter the size of the island of Ireland.

This means that over the last 25 years, Brazil lost around 10 acres of forest every minute.

The OECD figures also show that the percentage of the country’s land allocated to growing crops has increased from just under 7% a quarter of a century ago to more than 10% today. This equates to an additional 75m more acres of crops, an area half the size of France.

Brazil has also increased its grassland area, adding 29m acres or an area half the size of the UK, over the last 25 years.

Grassland now accounts for just under a quarter of all land.

Making land

The Amazon is roughly the same size as the entire EU and represents around 50% of the entire land mass of Brazil.

It is often referred to as the Earth’s lungs because its vast forests release oxygen and store carbon dioxide, a heat-trapping gas that is a major cause of global warming.

Forests in the Amazon were cleared faster than ever before in the late 1970s through the mid 2000s.

Vast areas of rainforest were felled for cattle pasture and soya farms and dug up for minerals.

That trend began to reverse in 2004. Since then, annual forest losses declined due to many factors including increased law enforcement and pressure from environmentalists.

The World Wildlife Fund is also concerned over the wooded grasslands of the Cerrado and claims they are being destroyed faster than the neighbouring Amazon rainforest

However, Brazil’s success in curbing deforestation has stalled since 2012. And this year, deforestation soared to levels not seen since the mid-2000s.

The World Wildlife Fund is also concerned over the wooded grasslands of the Cerrado and claims they are being destroyed faster than the neighbouring Amazon rainforest. The Cerrado covers more than 20% of Brazil and has seen a huge level of agricultural expansion over the last two decades.

Brazil itself claims that parts of the Cerrado have been selectively converted to farmland, which in turn protects the dense forests of the Amazon.

Today the Cerrado region provides more than 70% of the beef cattle production in the country

The Cerrado was thought of as challenging for agriculture until researchers at Brazil’s agricultural and livestock research agency, Embrapa, discovered that it could be made fit for crops such as soya by getting the fertility right.

The researchers also developed tropical varieties of soya beans which had been a temperate climate crop up until then.

Today the Cerrado region provides more than 70% of the beef cattle production in the country.

It is also a significant producer of crops including soya, and maize.

The USDA forecasts soya bean area will continue to expand in Brazil over the coming decade, including on uncultivated land.

Soya bean – Brazil’s crop of the century

The soya bean has transformed the agricultural landscape and been the driving force behind Brazil’s agricultural development, with significant economic and social impact. It is the main crop in Brazil, both in scale and in value.

Soya occupies 3.8% (33m ha) of the total area of Brazil. A big driver of efficiency is the climate. Brazil’s tropical climate allows for two grain harvests a year in the same field.

Brazil is the world’s second largest producer of soya bean, accounting for 35% of the 340m tonnes produced. Brazil is expected to take the lead in the coming decade.

Soya bean production has increased by almost 100m tonnes from less than 20,000t 25 years ago.

Brazil accounts for half of the world’s soya bean exports, making it the world’s largest exporter.

Soya beans have been the main driver of export growth and China has been the main destination, followed by the EU.

The country’s imports have trebled in the past decade to around 90m tonnes

The soya bean plant’s runaway popularity is down to its unparalleled protein content. When a chicken, pig or steer eats soya bean meal, they fatten fast.

The triumph of the soya bean hinges on incomes in China.

The country’s imports have trebled in the past decade to around 90m tonnes. Globally soya bean consumption has been accelerating at 5% a year, more rapidly than the 1% global population growth.

A change in Chinese diets has been the main driver of growth. The USDA projects China will import 121m tonnes of soya beans in a decade, up more than 30% from today.

So as the world’s appetite for protein continues to increase, we must ask at what environmental cost?