Reading the document published last week by the UK government on how it will implement the NI protocol within the withdrawal agreement, it gives the impression that there is little to fear once the Brexit transition period ends this December.

Under the protocol, NI is part of the UK customs territory, but will align with EU rules for goods, allowing produce such as milk, beef and lamb to move unchecked across the Irish border. In its paper, the government also repeated the assurance that NI business will have unfettered access to the UK market and will be able to access all UK trade deals.

The main problem area remains trade from Britain into NI. That won’t impact local farmers, but could have implications for processors and food retailers. Last week, cabinet minister Michael Gove accepted that some additional checks will be required on food coming to NI. But he talked down the disruption this might cause, and also insisted that EU customs tariffs will only be due on goods entering NI when there is a “substantial risk” that they end up in the Republic of Ireland/EU.

Yet there has to be a nagging doubt that all Gove’s assurances are very much dependent on the EU accepting that UK standards are equivalent to theirs, and the existence of a free trade deal between both parties.

Without both, it is hard to see how significant checks at NI ports can be avoided, and how the infrastructure required can be in place by the end of the year. There is also the potential issue of Republic of Ireland goods being moved to Britain via NI to avoid UK import tariffs – how will authorities in Britain manage that, without impacting NI traders?

But these are mostly issues for NI business. For farmers, Brexit is pretty much done and dusted. Under the NI protocol we should have unfettered access to both the UK and EU market. That could turn out to be a privileged position compared to farmers elsewhere.

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