In the last three weeks alone, cheddar price has moved to €4,800/t ex-factory on spot markets, Mozzarella cheese to €4,150 and butter to €5,800.

All three products have moved up €200 to €300/t in the last three to four weeks alone. We see the whole milk powder (WMP) market move in the same direction.

So what’s going to increase supply and pull down milk price?

You could say high prices send a clear signal to farmers to produce more. They do, and some will be able to react.

Factors pulling down supply

On the other hand, there are a number of factors that are pulling down supply and could mean high prices stay with us for another while.

What are they? Think of it – milking cow numbers back globally, feed quality average to poor in many EU countries pulling back performance.

The high cost of feed is another issue, but this is helped somewhat by the high price of milk.

The EU environmental agenda and developing EU policies setting new national benchmarks for milk supply for many EU countries.

A shortage of fertiliser and a high price of fertiliser which will reduce feed and grass production on farms.

A shortage of good people to milk cows in many countries means productivity pulled down a touch and that’s important when supply demand is tight.

Keeping a lid on it

All these reasons limit supply in one way or another – some small, some big. Cumulatively, they will keep a lid on supply, so the only way is up for markets at the moment if you take a helicopter view around the world.

That's before we start talking about a dry back end in New Zealand.

With this background in place, will the Irish farm organisations and co-operatives limit Irish dairy farmers next week?

Let’s hope not and that sense prevails to allow sensible discussion and evolution over time for all farmers in Ireland.