According to figures released this Monday by the dairy section of the UK’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), milk supply during the second half of September was 8.1% lower than during the same period last year. The trend observed since last June is now firmly established, especially in Britain, where the 9% year-on-year drop is sharper than in Northern Ireland.

In France, a survey of milk processors released by FranceAgriMer for the week ending 25 September shows that milk supply is now anchored around 7% below last year’s levels. This follows a sharp drop in late August and early September.

Meanwhile, the Italian dairy market analysis firm CLAL has released estimates for August showing a brutal 6.43% drop on the same month last year. This is the first month a significant shrinking milk supply has been reported in Italy, where production was surging until May this year.

Spanish supply up

Spain is bucking the trend, with the ministry for agriculture reporting a 2.1% increase in August supply compared with the same month last year. While increases in recent months have ranged between 2% and 3% - nowhere near the 7% to 8% surge observed in the spring - Spain shows no sign of joining its more conservative neighbours.

Irish processors surveyed by the Irish Farmers Journal last week reported that supply was down between 3% and 10%.

Milk supply continues to fall across western Europe - except in Spain

Several EU countries have released August milk supply data in the past few days, with the UK, France and Italy all reporting significant slowdowns.