There are three main factors that will dictate the subsidy payment this year and how it compares to last year. The first is the number of hectares on the Single Application Form. The more hectares included, the higher the 2015 payment, although extra hectares come at a financial cost.

The second factor is the strength of sterling against the euro. The rate has been as low as €1 = 70p, although sterling has now weakened a little to €1 = 73p. Last year, subsidy was converted at €1 = 77.7p. The prevailing rate throughout September 2015 will be used to convert this year’s payment.

The remaining issue is the amount of money that will have to be taken from everyone to fund the regional reserve. With thousands of suitably qualified young farmers and new entrants eligible to go straight to the NI average of €329/ha in 2015, the 3% originally set aside to fund the reserve will be inadequate. Best guesses are that it might require between 10 and 20%. Also factored into any calculation should be 2% to fund the young farmers’ scheme, and the first step of seven towards a flat-rate payment which occurs this year.

Assuming the euro to sterling exchange rate remains unchanged, and 10% is taken to fund the regional reserve, it means that a farmer with €1,000/ha entitlements (before deductions) on 50ha in 2014 faces a 25% drop in their payment (£35,654 to £26,708) if their land area is the same this year. If 20% is taken to fund the regional reserve, it is a 33% reduction (£35,654 to £23,868). The higher the starting point the bigger the cut, although even a farmer with low-value entitlements (€250/ha in 2014 before deductions) faces a reduction of between 10% and 20% in 2015.