International grain markets continue to be pressured by big supply estimates and these continue to be increased as harvest progresses. Futures prices fell further in the past week, but real prices are now very difficult to pin down as buyers vacate the real market in this period of harvest turmoil.

This is the reality of the market, but it makes reporting and advising difficult.

Rejection of milling wheat, because of reduced quality due to wet conditions in France and some other eastern EU countries, is adding to feed grain supply and price pressure. But the loss of an uncertain portion of milling wheat has helped its price in recent days.

Harvest production estimates were recently increased in Russia and Ukraine, based on harvest performance to date.

This is mirrored by experience at home, where winter barley yields improved as the season progressed and early indications from spring barley and winter wheat harvesting are encouraging.

While price uncertainty has generally prevented price quotes in recent weeks, many merchants have offered €165/t for dried winter barley and Bretts announced €140/t for green feed barley this week.

Price offers of €155 to €160/t for dry barley are somewhat meaningless as they are too low to encourage sellers and the continuous price slide leaves buyers waiting until “tomorrow”. Ultimately, supply is weighing heavy on the market.

November trade prices are difficult at the moment and actual prices vary considerably, depending on the parties involved. Wheat quotes are now down to €165/t dry but this is theoretical. Indeed, there are no real trade prices for wheat or barley currently, either spot or November. At this point, spot and November prices are broadly similar going forward.