International grain markets went through another week of topsy-turvy price movements, but the 2015 crop is now centre-stage in price sentiment. Revised output forecasts from many regions indicate lower production potential for a variety of reasons. That said, there is no pending disaster on the horizon which seems set to send prices spiralling upwards.

One of the big influencers at this time of year is the USDA forecast of US grower spring-planting intentions. This report showed another drop in US maize planting (for the third year running)of 2%, to 89.2 million acres. Some expected a bigger drop. Soya area is forecast to rise by 1% to 84.6 million acres. Wheat area is down by 3%.

The International Grains Council projected a drop in global maize and wheat production in 2015. The recent estimate puts wheat production down 1.4%, but maize is forecast to drop 4.9%. With global maize stocks set to rise, all the main markets saw considerable price drops in recent days. And just like a week earlier, this drop followed a period of stronger prices as funds bought up short positions, especially for wheat.

Back home, grain is still difficult to move, especially barley. The spot market has virtually moved to an April/June spread, sitting around €182/t for wheat, with a discount for immediate collection. And barley is even worse, with location having a big impact, in the €160/t to €165/t price range. But it is the lack of real demand that is most influential in the market. New-crop prices are back slightly on last week, having been stronger a few day ago. November dry wheat offers are currently at €186/t to €187/t, with barley around €170/t.