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The latest EU short-term outlook for the sheep sector expects sheepmeat production to drop 1% as a follow on from a decline in flocks and fewer lamb births amid adverse weather conditions in 2018.
The EU puts sheepmeat and goat meat into the same category in its outlook and while exports were down 17% last year for both categories, they are forecast to recover by 3% this year.
EU imports of sheepmeat
EU sheepmeat imports are forecast to fall marginally this year.
EU imports are dominated by New Zealand at 85% of the market share and imports were stable in 2018.
However, going back as far as 2012, New Zealand has focused more on Asian markets, in particular China.
Today, New Zealand sheepmeat holds a 26% share of the Chinese sheepmeat import market.
Partly as a result of increased exports to China over the last number of years, New Zealand’s share of the EU market almost halved over the last 10 years to 16%.
The outlook suggests that in case of no disturbances in trade flows, slightly lower EU imports are expected in 2019, with lower New Zealand shipments to the EU.
It said this may contribute to a decline of sheepmeat consumption in the EU (from 2.3kg to 2.2kg per capita). This would follow on from a 0.4% fall in consumption in 2018.
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