The EU Commissioner for Trade, Cecilia Malmström can now tick off Dublin as another capital visited on her travels to consult on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

On Friday she joined Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation, Richard Bruton for the launch of the Copenhagen Economics report on what TTIP - a trade deal between Europe and America - would mean for Ireland.

While the general tone of the report was positive and has been broadly welcomed by employers' groups, Patricia King from the Congress of Trade Unions sounded a note of caution on workers’ rights and employment practices. For agriculture, IFA President Eddie Downey pointed out that the projected loss in beef would offset any modest gains forecast for the other commodities.

Against the backdrop of a trade agreement that is believed to benefit Irish industry in the widest sense, it seems churlish to obsess about one section of Irish agriculture that in fact exports 90% of what it produces. However, as various speakers pointed out from the floor, the issue with beef is that it applies to 85,000 farm businesses across rural Ireland and it is a weak enough sector at present and not strong enough to withstand further knocks.

In fairness, the Commissioner and Minister Bruton accepted the threat to beef. Assurances were sought from, and given by the Commissioner that any TTIP agreement would not accept hormone beef. Europe is also committed to holding a firm line on genetically modified (GM) foods and Product of Geographical Indication (PGIs) – registered descriptors of regional product specialities such as Scotch beef and Welsh lamb.

If we could be sure the EU would hold the line on these issues then we could start the debate proper about the merits of a new arrangement for beef.

There remains a further issue. Europe is attractive to the global meat trade, USA included as a market for the loin and fillet steak cuts. These are a relatively small part of the carcase, typically less than 20kg. A relatively small quota tonnage for non-EU countries has massive potential to distort the EU trade in these cuts if an exporter to Europe was able to exploit an agreement that just specified beef, rather than individual cuts or categories.

The other side of this coin is that the same animal would produce 50/60kg of high quality manufacturing beef, the product that Europe is most interested in exporting to the USA. That explains one of the great frustrations with the present arrangements – if we had certification approval in place we would quickly fill what’s left of the 64,000t quota that the USA has allocated to countries outside Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay and Argentina.

We need to add carcase proportionality along with time spread for imports to Europe as a further red line issue.

If these conditions can be achieved, perhaps there are some grounds for optimism in TTIP.

The Copenhagen Economics report paints a bleak picture for beef. Its managing director, Martin Hvidt Thelle, confirmed to the Irish Farmers Journal that it was their intention to adopt a prudent view. The difficulty any organisation has in doing a piece of work like this is that it has to base its projections on historical data and model assumptions for the future. Given the dramatic changes that have occurred in the USA over the past two years it is unlikely that these have featured in their analysis. In many ways that is prudent as it could well be argued that the USA will return to a more normal relative beef price in time.

However, if we contemplate the transformation that has occurred in the relative position of the USA in farm gate and manufacturing beef prices over the past two years, we can begin to see an opportunity that might just work for Europe and Irish farmers. Looking at the Irish Farmers Journal archive, USA farm gate cattle prices were €3.44/kg in March 2013 when Irish prices were €4.05/kg. Fast forward to March 2015, and we find USA prices have jumped €2/kg to €5.34 while Irish prices are in fact €4.02. Reasons are well documented – lowest herd since 1951, drought and weak euro.

Turning to the high quality manufacturing beef trade, 95vl imported beef prices were €3.92/kg in Sept 2013, today they are €4.8/kg.

By comparison the average Irish price is approx. €3.60/kg to €3.80/kg. We can begin to understand why Irish factories are screaming for access to the USA market for this product which is a struggle to sell in the UK or Europe.

In these circumstances we can see a different picture emerge. If US beef is coming into Europe on the same terms as our own production, ie hormone-fed, industry sources have advised that there will be little enthusiasm in the USA for producing this “EU spec” beef, particularly when their own market is so strong. At the same time if we can get a period of access to the USA for manufacturing beef at the present or similar price differential that is at present, then there is immediate added value to the carcase for Irish farmers.

There is huge political and wider industry will across Europe to have a TTIP agreement in the belief that overall EU trade will benefit. The challenge for us is to have EU negotiators hold on to their stated positions on beef standards and if we can add no targeting of Europe for exclusively steak cuts, then a more positive picture can be presented for Irish beef farmers. This is the first trade treaty in history that we have had to negotiate against the backdrop of Ireland wanting access to global markets without the assistance of EU export refunds. We are a major beef exporting country so it does not fit that we oppose treaties that encourage the freeing up of trade. We have long lived with the USA preaching free trade but with lots of hidden hurdles when it comes to doing business. If we can get these removed, keep a level playing field on hormones, GM and no dumping of high value cuts in the EU market, then Irish farmers could actually finish up in a better place than they are at present. It is over to the EU negotiators to deliver and the rest of us to hold them to account.