All the indications remain that the country is heading for an over quota position.

Most of the processors report August 2013 milk supply compared to August 2012 was between 8% and 15% up week-on-week. At this stage, nine of the 14 major processors in our survey are over quota (see Figure 1). The five processors reporting they are under quota are Kerry, Aurivo, Lakeland, Town of Monaghan and Tipperary.

End of August estimates

Glanbia estimate they are 17m litres over quota (2.5%) up to 25 August but their Premier arm of suppliers are 0.7% (1m litres) under quota. Glanbia August deliveries are 8% up on the same period last year. Dairygold estimate they will be slightly over quota (maybe 0.5% over) at the end of August after they reported an ‘on quota’ position for the end of July. Dairygold August supplies are 12% up over the same period last year and report continuing strong supplies.

All the west Cork co-ops now estimate they will be over quota for the end of August. Bandon estimate they will be 6% over quota as August supplies are almost 12% up compared to August 2012. Drinagh estimate they will be 0.3% over quota as August supplies are up 15% week-on-week. Barryroe estimate they will be 3% over at the end of August while Lisavaird estimate they will be 1% over.

Arrabawn estimate they will be slightly over at the end of August, maybe 0.5% over quota, and supplies continue well ahead of last year with good prospects for autumn milk.

While Aurivo (Connacht Gold) are still under quota, they are well ahead of the same week last year and report supplies up 8% week-on-week. Town of Monaghan also estimate they will be 3.5% under at the end of August but, again, August milk supplies are 10% ahead of where they were for the same period last year. Kerry report they are now 3.6% under quota at end of August, but they were about 5% under end of July. They are up 12% on a weekly basis compared to last year.

Centenary Thurles report they will be 3.5% over quota at the end of August. Near neighbours Tipperary Co-op hadn’t a running tally figure available on annual quota but supplies are up 10% week-on-week compared to last year.

Department figures

As expected, the Department of Agriculture figures for the end of July reported that the country was 1.44% under quota. At the start of the 2013/14 quota year (end of April) they reported the country was 10% under, at the end of May we were 4% under and 2.6% under at the end of June. If the trend continues (which it is as verified by processors above) we would expect the national end of August position, which will be published later this month, to suggest the country will be very nearly on or slightly over quota.