“Every night, we raise a glass of vodka to thank President Obama for boosting our income and securing our future. At long last, someone has convinced us to produce all our own food,” Yuri Ivanovich K.

The sushi bars and Michelin-starred restaurants of Moscow took the first hit from the Russian embargo on EU and American food imports. Supplies of European red fish (smoked and fresh salmon) were the first to run out, followed by camembert and brie cheeses, and exotic fruits and vegetables from California and the Netherlands. These were not things your average Russian was overly concerned about. Indeed, if anything, these problems play out rather well with President Putin’s traditional support base.

Moscow and St Petersburg experienced just one day of a bit of panic buying before Russian food markets settled down. Russians have seen this all before.

Retail food prices did move up 5-10% in Moscow supermarkets last week. Russian food markets and government agencies scrambled to arrange alternative food supply sources.

The groundwork had already been well-laid for such an eventuality, with battalions of very willing international food exporters queuing up to fill the €6bn hole left by Irish, EU and American farmers.

Foremost among these were Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Bolivia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Cuba, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Switzerland.

International transport logistics and infrastructure are already in place through Russian fresh flower imports from Kenya, South Africa, the Caribbean, South America and Vietnam. Russian cargo shipping and rail freight networks are also very flexible and extensive.

A monumental error

European and American leaders have already grossly underestimated the absolute social and economic calamity a trade war with Russia could spark. It would be a monumental error to continue to do so – but that is what is now happening.

This week, the EU announced a €425m compensation package for food and agricultural companies who are going to lose out in this trade war. In relation to the €12bn in total at risk, this is only a drop in the ocean. EU fruit and vegetable growers have already claimed €125m of this rescue fund. Compensating Irish mushroom growers for their expected losses in the glutted British market would take at least twice that sum.

The full range of Irish farm enterprises could be crippled by Russia’s embargo. Although not directly involved, Irish potato and vegetable growers could be even more vulnerable than our dairy, beef, pig and poultry producers.

The other big risk is that Russia will continue to pile on the pressure now, by ratcheting up the prices of fertilizers and wheat.

If (and when) this happens, it will push the costs of production on all Irish and EU farms right over the top.

This would also be the kiss of death for thousands of workers in a wide variety Irish food processing companies. Workers and drivers in food transport logistics companies will be the first to take the hit.

Brendan Dunleavy