After several months of having beef prices on a different level to the rest of Europe, prices in the UK have taken a downward turn over past couple of weeks.

In Northern Ireland, which has closely reflected English prices in recent times, prices have fallen from a high of £3.72/kg (€5.02/kg) at the end of January for U3 steers to £3.50/kg (€4.78/kg) last week. Quotes this week for U-3= grade steers are in the region of £3.30/kg to £3.36/kg (€4.52/kg to €4.60/kg), with reports of difficulty in getting cattle away. Reported prices are usually ahead of quotes as they reflect special deals for some suppliers and speciality categories such as Aberdeen Angus, so reported price next week is unlikely to be as low as quotes, but it is still a bleak picture.

Factories are saying the euro hitting a recent record low against sterling has been the last straw, but there have been underlying factors putting pressure on the UK trade for some time. Manufacturing beef that is not sold to customers who demand Red Tractor approval has been trading against imported product which is relatively cheaper as the value of the euro weakens.

On top of this, the UK doesn’t have access to the Philippines, which was an extremely valuable market for Irish production in 2014. Difficulties with access to the Hong Kong market have also frustrated trade in recent times and industry reports suggest that cold stores on the island of Ireland are presently full of beef.

Numbers of cattle available for processing in Britain, Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland are all expected to be lower in 2015 overall, but at this moment there appears an oversupply relative to markets available.

While the trade has slowed for the winter range, it hasn’t quite taken off yet for the summer cuts. Just as the short-sleeved shirts come into the shops from now on regardless of weather, so also the beef range moves on from the stews and casseroles to burgers and steaks, aimed at the summer BBQ market. On top of this, the usual pattern been disrupted this year with many of the discount retailers promoting steaks as every day good value all winter. This helped strengthen prices over the winter months, but the belief in the industry is that it will be difficult persuading these same retailers to increase prices for the summer season.

Some factories talk about needing cattle at £3.20/kg to reflect today’s beef market but others believe that it is coming close to the bottom of the present cycle and if numbers tighten in the weeks ahead it could turn up again.