All market indicators continue to point to heavy supply pressure, yet prices continue to take opportunities to rise off the floor. Most foreign futures markets strengthened over the past week, despite even higher projections for global output. Global wheat and maize output is now estimated at new record highs of 751.3Mt and 1,039.7Mt respectively.

Despite these numbers, futures prices rose recently, mainly in response to strong export demand for US wheat and the ending of a 10% import tax for wheat going into India. This latter change is likely to result in significant wheat imports into India as a consequence of drought.

Australian wheat output was officially put at 32.6Mt – a record high – while Canada has put its wheat production at 31.7Mt, the second-highest output on record.

However, supplies of high-quality milling wheat remain tight and this element of wheat price should not be confused with its value for feed.

Native prices remain broadly similar to last week – indeed they have moved very little over the past month or so. Spot wheat is again put at €168 to €170/t to the trade, but the higher end is infrequent. End-users, especially where they want grain, may be paying an additional €3 to €5/t. Spot barley is put at €156 to €158/t.

March/May prices are around €172/t for wheat and €160/t for barley, but there are not many buyers this far out. November new-crop prices are similar at €168 to €170/t for wheat and €158/t for barley.