The high-profile re-entry of Brazilian beef to the US could happen in the next couple of weeks, though informed opinion suggests that it will be a longer-term exercise taking up to three months. However long it takes, it is clear that Brazilian beef will reach the US before the end of this year.

This is not seen as good news for the fledgling Irish beef export business to the US, which is struggling in any case compared to the second half of last year. Exports are now concentrated on products around what is known as the thin meat, ie skirts, which are lower-volume compared with chuck and other forequarter cuts which made up much of trade late last year.

Ireland exports to the US under a 64,000t “other” quota that is used by countries approved that don’t have a trade deal of their own with the US. Australia has a quota for over 400,000t and New Zealand over 200,000t. Until now, the main user of the “other” quota was Nicaragua, which shipped 45,000t last year. They have expressed a fear that Brazil could fill this quota in a week if they chose to do so. That would leave them and indeed Ireland having to pay import tariffs of 26% which would make an already marginal business no longer viable.

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Currently seven Brazilian plants are approved with the expectation that this will grow to 25 in the near future.