As things stand, by the end of March 2019, the UK will be no longer part of the EU. The chief negotiator for the EU wants negotiations to be completed by October 2018, leaving around 500 days to shape the future relationship between the EU 27 and its former member.

A full Brexit means the UK leaving the single market and customs union, enabling it to take absolute control of its trade agreements, courts and migration.

Yet there is a voice in most of UK industry that is picked up by some in Government that talks about avoiding a “cliff edge” following the UK departure. In agriculture, future alternatives to CAP support for Northern Ireland and Scotland will be determined in Whitehall during the next parliament. There is also the issue of market access both for UK exports that are necessary to achieve carcase balance while the UK is the third biggest sheepmeat exporter in the world with France being the key market.

On the island of Ireland, the issue involves trade across the border for Northern Ireland lambs coming south and between 25%-30% of milk doing the same. Irish beef exports to the UK account for over half of all exports. This trade simply cannot continue under WTO arrangements post-Brexit, which is the logical outcome of the UK leaving the single market and customs union.

Ironically, as per the graphs shown, only seven of the 27 EU members will be affected in any meaningful way, with Ireland and Germany carrying 37% of the tariff burden. Significantly, Ireland has the largest potential tariff burden on 19.2% of total tariffs with just 5% of total sales, whereas Germany will have 17% of tariffs on 28% of all EU sales to the UK.

WTO arrangements

If Brexit happens within the allotted time frame, it is difficult to visualise anything other than a default to WTO trading arrangements. The alternative is that either the EU or UK give way their states’ positions in negotiations, which is unlikely. A transitional arrangement that lasted a very long time would be ideal for continued trade in agri products on the island of Ireland as well as Scotland.