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Ahead of the UK prime minister’s keynote speech on the UK ambitions for Brexit implementation, her foreign secretary has upstaged the event with his own latest musings on how Brexit should work.
In a rousing piece in the Daily Telegraph, Boris Johnson has reignited divisions in the Conservative Party about just how great the split should be once the UK leaves the EU on 30 March 2019.
It is thought in political circles that prime minister Theresa May would use the heavily promoted Florence speech to outline a continued engagement with the EU, by way of a transition arrangement for a period of time while a new trading arrangement could be negotiated.
Stalled
Negotiations have all but stalled on Brexit because the EU is leaving it to the UK to come forward with proposals which in turn somewhat frustrates the UK.
It is a valid negotiation tactic from an EU perspective – they don’t have to do anything as it is the UK leaving the EU not the other way around.
There is also an element of who needs who the most in the departure of the UK from the EU.
German cars would be inconvenienced by a 7.9% tariff, but not wiped out like Irish beef and cheese, carrying a tariff of up to 80%
While in absolute monetary terms the UK imports more from the EU than it sells to it, this trade has varying impact on the 27 member states.
Outside a free-trade deal and with maximum WTO tariffs applying, Irish beef and cheddar cheese sales to the UK would be wiped out.
On the other hand, German cars, which are the largest single category sale from the EU 27 to the UK, would be inconvenienced by a 7.9% tariff, but not wiped out, as in the case with Irish beef and cheese carrying a tariff of up to 80%.
A UK buyer of a BMW or Mercedes car at £50,000 is likely to still be a customer if the car costs £54,000 after paying the tariff.
Ambition
The intervention by Boris Johnson reflects a combination of personal ambition, however strongly denied, and a fear that this upcoming speech by the prime minster would signal a move to what is described as a “soft” Brexit.
This would mean a transition arrangement beyond March 2019 and involve the UK making payments to the EU, which is at variance with one of the great campaign claims, however inaccurate, of creating an extra £350m per week for the National Health Service.
Uncertainty
The uncertainty of the UK position will continue to be a stumbling block for negotiations for some time to come.
Going into the Conservative Party conference in the first week of October, the prime minister is seriously weakened following the disastrous election.
Unlike a year ago when she was in complete control, to the extent that she could call the election and produce the manifesto without involving her cabinet, she is now weakened to such an extent that she struggles to impose the most basic discipline.
This environment doesn’t suit when the UK has to be proactive in coming forward with proposals that can achieve the Brexit ambitions and get the support of the EU 27 that are required to endorse any deal.
The Boris Johnson line of having the cake and eating it has alerted the EU to what UK ambitions are, which in turn has made the EU want to make sure the UK isn’t better off outside than it had been inside.
Impasse
Therefore, negotiations are at a predictable impasse. Whatever big ideas the UK prime minister plans to announce at Florence have already frightened her foreign secretary and several other believers in a full UK disengagement from the EU.
While the debate continues in London, time is passing.
Risk to Irish farmers
For Irish farmers there is no such thing as a “good” Brexit, but as the deadlock continues the risk increases for serious disruption to the market for Irish beef and cheese to the extent we have never experienced before.
Our Government and the EU need to have a contingency plan in place for the worst-case scenario, while hoping that it is never necessary to implement it.
Juncker delivers upbeat state of the union address
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