The main price sentiment driver remains quality milling wheat and feed grains may not display the same increase unless maize yields are hit be weather.
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International grain markets continued to strengthen over the past week but futures market have levelled off in response to profit taking by funds. But the weather concerns that drove the upwards price movement in quality milling wheat in recent weeks have not gone away.
Now there is additional concern that heat and dryness could affect maize and soya bean production in the US Midwest. If this happens it would be a game-changer on price sentiment. If this does not materialise, there is a need for caution to differentiate price expectations for quality and feed grains.
If the lower US maize area suffers a below-trend yield, this could significantly affect supply numbers. Add to this increasing fears about dryness problems in Australia and parts of the EU and there is scope for a change in sentiment. But realism must still prevail against a background of over 500 Mt of stock levels.
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US weather also affected soya bean prices and this also spilled over into oilseed rape. Native dry rape is currently around €385/t. In the physical market a stronger euro has slowed price benefits. As a result, native prices are back, with limited spot wheat trading around $182/t and barley in the €160 to €164/t range.
November wheat has been trading at €180 to €185/t, depending on the day and the hour, with barley either side of €168/t. May ’18 price offers only add €3-€5/t to November prices. Earlier this week Dairygold offered €150/t for green wheat and €137/t for barley while Glanbia offered €148 for green wheat and €135/t for green barley for harvest.
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International grain markets continued to strengthen over the past week but futures market have levelled off in response to profit taking by funds. But the weather concerns that drove the upwards price movement in quality milling wheat in recent weeks have not gone away.
Now there is additional concern that heat and dryness could affect maize and soya bean production in the US Midwest. If this happens it would be a game-changer on price sentiment. If this does not materialise, there is a need for caution to differentiate price expectations for quality and feed grains.
If the lower US maize area suffers a below-trend yield, this could significantly affect supply numbers. Add to this increasing fears about dryness problems in Australia and parts of the EU and there is scope for a change in sentiment. But realism must still prevail against a background of over 500 Mt of stock levels.
US weather also affected soya bean prices and this also spilled over into oilseed rape. Native dry rape is currently around €385/t. In the physical market a stronger euro has slowed price benefits. As a result, native prices are back, with limited spot wheat trading around $182/t and barley in the €160 to €164/t range.
November wheat has been trading at €180 to €185/t, depending on the day and the hour, with barley either side of €168/t. May ’18 price offers only add €3-€5/t to November prices. Earlier this week Dairygold offered €150/t for green wheat and €137/t for barley while Glanbia offered €148 for green wheat and €135/t for green barley for harvest.
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