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A 1.4% fall in beef production is expected in 2018, after four consecutive years of moderate increases, according to the European Commission.
The level of decline remains uncertain, as it is hard to predict the exact timing and pace of change.
In the medium term, the main drivers are productivity gains in the dairy sector and the profitability of the various beef production systems.
2017 production
In the first quarter of 2017, net beef production in the EU was stable, increasing by only 0.2% on the previous year.
For the first quarter of 2016, production was up by 2.1%. This slowdown is being attributed mainly to the lower slaughter rate for bulls and bullocks, down 2.2%, while the rate for suckler cows went down from an annual figure of 6.3% to 0.8% in the first quarter of 2017.
Net beef production throughout Europe is expected to grow throughout the year.
The restructuring of the dairy sector will continue. However, we are already seeing the slowdown in certain EU countries.
Suckler cow herd
Although the EU suckler cow herd expanded by 31,000 head in 2016, according to the latest figures from the livestock survey of December 2016, the EU’s total cow herd was reduced by 60,000.
This was due to the slaughtering of dairy cows in many EU countries, according to the Commission. However, this figure is less than 1% of the total EU cow herd, estimated at 35.5m.
Schemes such as the dairy herd reduction scheme in the Netherlands, where 31,500 dairy cows will be slaughtered, were designed to curb phosphate emissions.
Beef prices
The average price of adult male cattle recovered at the end of 2016 and has stayed more or less stable for the first few months of 2017 at approximately €3.75/kg.
EU cow prices (category O3) stayed relatively flat and low in 2016 at around €2.70/kg.
However since the end of 2016, prices for cows have also been rising steadily and seem to be resuming their characteristic seasonal pattern.
The slowdown in the slaughter rate of cows during the first quarter is probably the reason for the price change observed.
Consumption
In 2016, the availability of beef for consumption in the EU increased by 2.3%. Consumption is again expected to rise throughout Europe for 2017 by about 0.6%.
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