According to the interpretation of Kantar Worldpanel data by English beef and sheep organisation AHDB, France, the largest beef market in the EU, has seen a continuation in the decline of household purchases of premuim cuts of beef so far in 2015. However, the ground beef market, which mainly covers mince and burgers, remains strong.

For frozen ground beef, which includes burgers and steak haché, there was a rise of over 1% in volume purchases in the year to May. This was similar to the increase recorded last year as a whole, when the market was recovering from the horse meat scandal of 2013. According to the data, total ground beef purchases in January to May 2015 increased by as much as 4%.

In contrast, premium cut beef volumes were down by 4% in January to May 2015, having already declined by similar amounts in each of the previous four years.

Spanish decline

In Spain, volume purchases have continued to decline in the first five months of 2015, although the data indicates they were only down by just over 2%, compared with a year earlier. In the period 2009 to 2014, the annual rate of decline had averaged almost 5%, as the difficult economic situation had a major impact, not only on demand for beef, but meat in general.

Household spending on beef in Spain in the first five months of 2015 was 2% lower than the same period the previous year. However, AHDB says there are indications that the recovery in the Spanish economy is gaining some momentum which should eventually provide some support to the beef market.

UK burger recovery

In the UK, household purchases of fresh beef declined marginally in the first five months of 2015, including a fall in mince, while prices have been unchanged. In contrast, the market for burgers and grills has continued to recover after the 2013 horse meat scandal, with volumes up by 6% in January to May 2015, compared with a year earlier.

AHDB says increasing demand will be critical to the future development of the EU beef market, something which will depend on a further improvement in the economic situation in the major consuming countries.

German demand picks up

Germany is the only major beef-consuming country that is experiencing a pick-up in consumption levels. Purchases were up by almost 1% last year as a whole, with further growth of almost 5% recorded in the first five months of 2015. AHDB says the market was helped by some momentum in the German economy and retail beef prices being lower year-on-year.

Bord Bia: European sluggishness

Bord Bia’s Meat and Livestock Review report for 2014/2015 acknowledges this sluggishness in the European market. It says that with beef still at a relatively high price point versus pork and poultry, consumers are buying into the beef category less frequently.

In food service, Bord Bia says consumers are choosing cheaper and often lower meat-content options.

Nonetheless, Ireland remains the biggest net exporter of beef in Europe, exporting 90% of its production at a value of €2.27bn. The UK is still the largest market for Irish beef and volumes of beef to the UK increased by around 10% in 2014 to stand at an estimated 271,000t. This equates to over 50% of our total beef exports.

It is understood that only 41.5% of Irish beef exported to the UK in 2014 was destined for retail and, of this amount, over 60% was sold as mince or diced beef, while much of the remaining volume related to seasonal promotions. Given the preference of UK consumers for manufacturing beef, as described above, this looks like positive news for Irish beef exports.

Exports to continental European markets grew by 13% in volume terms to stand at an estimated 238,000t last year. Higher exports were recorded to most markets, particularly Italy, France and Germany, although consumer demand remained subdued in many markets, with Italian consumption reportedly 5% lower and French consumption down by 3%.

Ireland's prime beef steak cuts are increasingly being marketed in countries like Germany and Switzerland, where the economies, as detailed above, are improving.

The recent protests by French farmers, encouraging the public to buy French-only, has, however, indicated trouble for Ireland's general meat exports to France in the long-run, with Meat Industry Ireland saying the actions of French farmers "are a cause for significant concern for Irish meat exports."