EU wheat export volumes set to fall sharply

Wheat export volumes from the EU are set to plunge this year after a very difficult summer in which yields and quality were badly hit by weather. Strategie Grains, the Parisian consultancy group, has cut its forecast for EU wheat exports in 2016/’17 by 1m tonnes to less than 24mT. That would equate to a decline of more than 8mT compared to last year.

Total wheat production across the EU is estimated at less than 137mT, which is about 10% down on last year. Heavy rainfall and flooding swept across the continent in the key months of June and July, leaving the European wheat crop in difficulty.

In France, the largest wheat grower and exporter on the continent, it has been a particularly difficult year, with average yields said to be at their lowest in more than 30 years at 5.45t/ha.

The French agriculture ministry has estimated domestic wheat production this season at just over 28mT, which is a 30% reduction compared to last year’s crop.

To make matters worse for French growers, the quality of this season’s crop appears much poorer than previous years following the heavy rains. As such, export demand is expected to decline, with the French agriculture ministry forecasting wheat shipments at 11.9mT, a 43% drop year-on-year and the lowest export volume in a decade.