The European Champions Cup picture is a lot clearer heading into the final weekend of pool games, with only Connacht’s fate still to be decided. Tellingly, their destiny remains in their own hands – a scenario they have relished these past 18 months.

Supporters from the west of Ireland will travel in numbers to the south of France to visit former European powerhouses Toulouse. By my reckoning, Connacht need only a bonus point to ensure a historic first quarter-final place, as long as they deprive Toulouse of a five-pointer themselves. Of course, a win on Sunday will solve all mathematical permutations.

But just in case that doesn’t happen, here goes. Connacht fans, stay with me. Right now, Pool Two is the tight one. Connacht sit top with 18 points going to France. Wasps are in second on 17 but travel to Zebre, where a five-point haul is as good as guaranteed. By 6pm on Sunday, they will have 22 points.

Connacht can get to 23 points by beating Toulouse and scoring four tries while they’re at it. That would be enough to win the pool and – whisper it – give them an outside chance of securing a home quarter final in Galway (if Toulon beat Saracens).

Connacht can get to 22 points by just beating Toulouse without scoring four tries. If they do that, they are in the last eight, but as a best runner-up because, in the case of a tie, Wasps win the tie-breaker courtesy of their 15-point win over Connacht in Coventry, set against Connacht’s memorable two-point win at the Sportsgrounds.

Still with me?

OK, here’s the most likely path to the knockout stages for Connacht: finish within seven points of Toulouse, stop them scoring four tries while doing it and Pat Lam’s your uncle. Something like an 18-12 loss would do the Irish side, in a dour, uncompromising, niggly contest played out in single-degree temperatures.

That is eminently achievable for a club that is now used to the big matches and pressure. Aside from their crisis at outhalf, the loss of Ultan Dillane and Bundee Aki, not to mention four or five other front-line injury losses, Connacht are in great shape!

Actually, they have shown signs in recent weeks of the squad depth needed to compete at this level. They would be deserved pool winners were that to happen for they were very unlucky to lose 32-17 to Wasps back in the third round. That is their only blemish in Europe this season and it speaks volumes for their resolve.

It should not be forgotten that Toulouse have a crucial Top 14 clash a week later against La Rochelle, who are currently second in the table, while Toulouse are fourth. Proud European champions that Toulouse have been, they are not reclaiming the trophy this May in Murrayfield because to do so they would have to travel away to Leinster, Munster or Clermont in the last eight. They lost last weekend to Wasps, 17-14, a decent performance away from home, but that represented their last chance to win the pool. They led 14-10 going into the last two minutes and had their hearts broken by a late Wasps try. Hopefully the hangover is still with them. They’re at home, they have serious international talent like Doussain, Huget, Medard, Richie Gray and captain Thierry Dusatoir, but they are French, so you never know what side will turn up.

So the hopes are high for Connacht and they are in with a right and realistic chance to make history. Even devoid of such talent, they still have attacking options in Tiernan O’Halloran, wings Niyi Adeolokun and Matt Healy, not to mention a pack so well led by Johnny Muldoon. Kieran Marmion is the form scrum-half in Ireland (although still behind Conor Murray, who is the form scrum-half in the world) and latest No 10 John Cooney kicked eight conversions last Saturday. I have a good feeling about Connacht ahead of this. This could be Pat Lam’s goodbye gift from his grateful squad. They have the spirit to get this done.

Munster

Munster will secure a home quarter-final with a win over Racing 92, who will probably make it a little bit harder than a fortnight ago. But that won’t matter. As we saw in Glasgow last Saturday night, Munster are back and this is in Thomond. If the chips fall kindly for them, they can win this competition.

Leinster

Leinster are thinking the same thing and guess what, they might have to beat you-know-who in the semi-finals to do so. By my albeit sketchy reckoning, Leinster and Munster should end up ranked second and third seeds for the last eight, both at home. Win those games and they meet in the semi-final. A full house in the Aviva come 22 April? Is Croker free, lads?

To make that happen, Leinster have to dispose of Castres this Friday night. The French side have no further interest in the competition and Leo Cullen doesn’t actually have to instruct Isa Nacewa about bonus points, for such is the Leinster plus points total (140), neither Munster nor Saracens can come close to them if they just win on Friday night. They will.

Two weeks out from Ireland and Scotland in Murrayfield, almost all front-line internationals will be hungry for work this weekend. They’ll be keen to impress Joe Schmidt and arrive into Irish camp on a high. That should see Leinster, Munster and Connacht right. We hope.

Whither Ulster?

Lumped into a difficult pool, in truth Ulster lost their grip on this tournament back on week one. With less than 10 minutes to go in Bordeaux, they led by a score line of 13-9 and had a foothold in the competition. Eight minutes later, they had squandered the lead, a losing bonus point and their European hopes went up in smoke with a 28-13 loss. All that before they brilliantly beat pool heavyweights Clermont at home, before losing heavily down there. It was really over before it began.

Les Kiss is in his first proper year at the helm up north, he’ll get a tune out of them, they can still make a push for the Pro-12 playoffs while coming back to Europe stronger next October.

For good measure, they will beat Bordeaux in Belfast this Saturday lunchtime.