The latest EU forecasts for the full year 2016 show continuing expansion in all types of meat output:

  • +3.3% for beef.
  • +2.4% for sheepmeat.
  • +1% for pigmeat.
  • +4% for poultry.
  • The European Commission notes that the EU beef market feels pressure from the slaughter of dairy cows through the recent period of low milk prices. Poland alone produced 28,000t more beef in the first half of 2016 than during the same period last year, mostly from cows and heifers. A similar trend was observed in all EU member states except Sweden and Italy.

    This additional beef found outlets in live exports, which rose by 34% in the seven months to the end of July, driven by demand from Mediterranean countries. However, European demand is recovering a lot more slowly and the Commission warns that dairy restructuring is affecting beef prices. “Continued low cow prices and restructuring in the dairy sector start to have an impact on prices of all categories,” EU analysts wrote.

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    Lamb market

    Sheepmeat demand is also driven by live exports in the same proportion as beef. However, the Commission also noted that imports of New Zealand lamb into the EU increased by 8% in the first half of this year, and European prices are not as good as in previous years. “Since May, the seasonal upward trend can be observed again, but at a level 20c/kg below the average of the five years,” the report reads.

    Pig recovery

    “In 2016, EU pigmeat exports are expected to reach a record level at 2.7mt (+24% on annual basis), thanks to the boost in exports to China,” the Commission notes. However, it warns that the euro/yuan exchange rate, the EU pigmeat production capacity and the consequences of the economic slowdown on Chinese consumer demand and its meat sector could cause EU exports to slow down in the coming months.

    Japan, Taiwan, Ukraine and the US have also increased their imports of EU pigmeat in recent months.

    Poultry prices down

    EU poultry prices are at a three-year low after constant production growth in the sector since the start of 2014. European exports are continuing to grow, but on a highly competitive global market, and imports of poultry meat from Brazil and Chile into the EU are also on an upward trend.