Once a strong rural community, Longford-Westmeath’s voting pattern is dominated by the large urban centres of Athlone and Mullingar. However, the rural and farming vote will carry prominence as we approach polling day.

The rural issues

Flooding, flooding, flooding. Athlone, its surrounds and large parts of south Longford were affected by the flooding and this will be a major issue for the politicians to get a handle on.

Despite the constituency having three urban centres in Athlone, Longford and Mullingar, the focus for many will be on jobs and the economic recovery. Unemployment is stagnant at approximately 12%, above the national average of 9%. How the politicians will generate jobs and ensure the economic recovery does not forget about the midlands will be a hot topic on the doorsteps.

Similar to the rest of the country, rural crime will be in sharp focus.

The farming issues

Longford-Westmeath is dominated by drystock farmers. Drystock farming is a low-margin, low-profit enterprise, so the need for income supports to continue will be central to most farmers’ thoughts.

Incomes and income volatility for the dairy, pig, sheep and grain sectors will never be too far from the thoughts of politicians and voters alike.

Who will get elected?

Little has changed in Longford-Westmeath since the election of 2011. The sitting TDs of James Bannon (Fine Gael), Willie Penrose (Labour), Robert Troy (Fianna Fáil) and Gabrielle McFadden (Fine Gael – replaced her sister at 2012 by-election) are again in the lead.

Independent Kevin “Boxer” Moran has worked hard with the flooded communities in Athlone. He could be outsider to beat with McFadden, the likely loser. Bannon and Penrose both come from farming stock.

The odds courtesy of Paddy Power

Willie Penrose (Labour) 1/20

Peter Burke (Fine Gael) 11/2

Manchan Magan (Green Party 80/1

James Bannon (Fine Gael) 1/16

Connie Gerety Quinn (Fianna Fail) 12/1

Barbara Smyth (Ind) 80/1

Robert Troy (Fianna Fail) 1/14

Mae Sexton (Ind) 20/1

Donal Jackson (Ind) 100/1

Gabrielle McFadden Fine Gael) 10/11

James Morgan (Ind) 20/1