International grain prices have come back a little from their recent rise. European prices have benefited a little from recent currency changes, but they are still back.

Weather conditions continue to have an impact on market sentiment as good crop condition ratings for European crops have led some analysts to suggest a 6% increase in wheat production compared with 2016. But last year was a poor year for French wheat production, so this is not a major threat.

Recent information from Ukraine suggests that more of its wheat is in satisfactory to good condition compared with last year, but that 15% to 30% of plants have been winter-killed in its underdeveloped winter barley crops. Specific hardiness tests indicate that crops are still vulnerable to winter damage should further cold challenges occur.

However, such suggestions are hypothetical and the market remains over-supplied. Recent official estimates from Australia suggest record output levels from both its wheat and barley crops (35Mt and 13Mt) respectively.

Native grain prices remain broadly similar to last week, but with slightly less optimism for new crop. Spot wheat remains around €178/t, with barley in the €163 to €165/t range. Currency has helped and maize ex-port is now quoted at €185/t – up from €180/t recently. Prices for May are a bit weaker though, with wheat at €178 to €180/t and barley at €163 to €165/t. November prices are also a bit weaker, with €170 to €172/t for wheat and barley closer to €160/t.