Grain prices have held firm over the past week but there is uncertainty as to whether they have hit bottom yet, or not. A level of speculator investment, plus delays in the maize harvest due to wet weather in many regions, have helped reduce harvest pressure for the moment and this is allowing prices to find a ‘real’ value.

While there is improved weather and harvest conditions forecast for next week in the US, harvest volume and hence price pressure tends to be lower when the harvest slips later into the year because daily harvesting capacity is generally reduced. But only time will answer whether we have seen the bottom in the market or not.

With the last band of harvest pressure now passed prices are finding a more realistic level. But pricing structures would indicate that demand at the spot end of the market is low because this demand is largely filled while further out prices from March to May appear more attractive now, relatively speaking. One could certainly take the view that if you need to move something today then May is a better price than spot if you have the storage and can wait for the money. But whether price is higher or lower come May will remain uncertain.

Spot price for wheat this week is broadly similar to last week, at around €155 to €157/t to the trade. Spot barley is firmer however as the harvest selling pressure eases and barley is put around €150/t this week. Meanwhile Glanbia announced its green grain prices last week and it is to pay €130/t for feed barley, €134/t for feed wheat and €146/t for malting barley. All these prices are subject to a €5/t bonus based on trading arrangements (all plus VAT).

As indicated previously May ’15 prices have hardened and wheat is now around €`165 to €166/t with barley at around €155 to €157/t.