Grain prices continued to be pressurised downwards over the past week, helped by continued indications of a big global grain harvest and the absence of any indication that production would be hit by some previously unforeseen event. As we get closer to what looks like a big global harvest, the penalty for having so little forward sold is biting deeper. Estimates suggest that only about 10% of our total crop is forward sold here and this means more harvest pressure.

But this problem is not just in Ireland. The lack of forward selling of the Ukrainian maize crop in particular (due to uncertainty around possible military conflict) may now mean a virtual dumping of that crop at harvest time. This is especially the case if there is a big grain crop there with limited storage capacity. This is now a concern in the market and is used as a reason to only buy as necessary until the end of the year.

Elsewhere, the slide in maize grain prices appears to have taken a slight turn upwards in the physical market, despite a continuous downward trend on the futures. This is because of a reluctance to sell at current low prices. This same approach acted to hold up prices post-harvest for much of the current marketing year. There is also a level of uncertainty about the technicalities of how import levies might be triggered within the EU, based on current price differentials.

But the pressure is downwards in the face of a big international crop and a harvest that is now under way in many parts of the world.

At home, spot wheat is broadly similar to last week, but November prices are down somewhat. Spot wheat to the trade remains in the €198 to €200/t bracket, while spot barley is down about €3/t and in the €165 to €170/t price range.

November prices for new-crop wheat tend to be €175 to €177/t, while November barley tends to have held in the €165 to €168/t range.