According to ICOS’s dairy policy analyst and incoming chief executive TJ Flanagan, the latest dairy commodity trading data from the EEX Exchange demonstrate very poor prices at a “level not seen since 2009”.

This week’s butter and skimmed milk powder indices “suggest a value of around 20c/l”, while the latest drop in Ornua’s PPI index came to a return of 25c/l and EU-wide prices are 13% lower than the average of the last five years.

One can only hope that the global supply/demand relationship comes back into balance as soon as possible because the degree to which co-ops can continue to support milk prices from their own reserves is surely limited

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Flanagan said such low prices could be “enormously damaging to farmers’ livelihoods”, adding that “the degree to which co-ops can continue to support milk prices from their own reserves is surely limited”.

ICOS published the analysis this Monday, after Lakeland Dairies cut its milk price on Friday and other co-ops are preparing to set their January prices this week.

Comparing the current situation to the 2009 crisis, the ICOS analyst noted that Irish milk processors had then supported milk prices to the tune of over €100m the year before, leaving them with “bare cupboards” when support was most needed.

Unless markets rebalance quickly, he warned, co-ops may run out of cash before the crisis hits rock bottom – just like they did in 2009, when the combination of low prices and bad weather lead to “a 3% reduction in Irish milk supplies”.

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