July milk supplies continued the above-quota trend that was established from the very first month of the new quota year. July is the fourth month of the final quota year and already some industry sources are suggesting it looks a racing certainty that the country will go over quota. Most of the major milk processors are between 5% and 10% over quota based on our co-op survey results (see Figure 1).

The standout results show estimates from Dairygold and Glanbia that they are 9% and 6.5% over quota, respectively. The major co-ops in the west of the country, Aurivo and Kerry, estimate that they are 5% and 3% over quota respectively to the end of July.

A combination of favourable grass growth and grazing conditions and a higher peak milk supply from spring-calving herds is combining to push July supplies well up on July 2013. We must remember that July 2013 supplies were beginning to increase considerably on a very poor first-half supply.

Co-op quota position

In West Cork, Barryroe estimates it is 7% over quota at the end of July, similar to the other Carbery co-ops. Lisavaird estimates it is 7% over and Drinagh estimates it is 8% over quota at the end of July.

In the midlands, Centenary Thurles estimates it is 9.3% over quota at the end of July. Dairygold estimates it is 9% over quota, Glanbia expects its levels to be 6.5% over quota to the end of July (40m litres over), while Premier, the other Glanbia arm, is 5.1% over quota (6.5m litres over). Lakeland estimates it will end July 7.5% over quota, up from the 6.5% at the end of June, while Arrabawn estimates it is 11% over quota to the end of July.

In the west, Aurivo estimates that it ended July 5% over quota. Town of Monaghan estimates that it finished July 6% over quota and reports that supplies are holding up very well, while Kerry Group estimates it ended July 3% above – or 15m litres – its quota.

Wexford estimates that it finished July 11.2% over quota (5.2m litres).

July supplies

Similar to previous months, all co-ops reported higher July supplies compared to figures from 2013. Kerry estimates it is running 7 to 8% over on weekly basis. Arrabawn estimates it is running 6% up week-on-week compared to last year. Aurivo estimates it had 6% more milk in July compared to the same period last year.

Dairygold estimates July milk supplies to be 3.2% over the same period last year, while Glanbia reports weekly July supplies 6% up compared to July 2013.