Current events in the soya bean market are impacting on sentiment in all grain markets.
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Global grain futures weakened considerably last week. Rain in the US Midwest had some impact but the week was more about politics and currency. The recent surge in wheat price was mainly driven by fund purchase and now much of this is being sold again amid fears that maize and soya may be impacted by trade difficulties.
It is important to realise that fundamentals have not changed. Nobody has added and additional 20mt to global output. Dryness remains a serious concern in many wheat producing regions and this has not changed. There is little to say that maize yields will be trend or better but for the moment the market chooses to believe they will. And as a result buyers are unwilling to commit in the hope that prices will fall further.
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As a result prices are largely nominal and physical markets here could be described as similar to last week but with a weaker tone. Spot wheat is in the €190 to €195/t range with spot barley at reflecting import price of €195/t, or lower.
New crop price is equally uncertain with November wheat around €185 to €190/t and barley from €180 to €185/t. Maize and soya prices have weakened considerably also.
Glanbia offered €186/t for dry wheat and €183/t for November barley earlier this week and €157 and €154/t for green grain respectively for harvest.
UK prices are all down slightly on the back of currency. Delivered wheat is back by up to £1/t, with ex-farm prices in a similar situation. AHDB put ex-farm wheat at £159/t and barley at £143.90/t.
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Global grain futures weakened considerably last week. Rain in the US Midwest had some impact but the week was more about politics and currency. The recent surge in wheat price was mainly driven by fund purchase and now much of this is being sold again amid fears that maize and soya may be impacted by trade difficulties.
It is important to realise that fundamentals have not changed. Nobody has added and additional 20mt to global output. Dryness remains a serious concern in many wheat producing regions and this has not changed. There is little to say that maize yields will be trend or better but for the moment the market chooses to believe they will. And as a result buyers are unwilling to commit in the hope that prices will fall further.
As a result prices are largely nominal and physical markets here could be described as similar to last week but with a weaker tone. Spot wheat is in the €190 to €195/t range with spot barley at reflecting import price of €195/t, or lower.
New crop price is equally uncertain with November wheat around €185 to €190/t and barley from €180 to €185/t. Maize and soya prices have weakened considerably also.
Glanbia offered €186/t for dry wheat and €183/t for November barley earlier this week and €157 and €154/t for green grain respectively for harvest.
UK prices are all down slightly on the back of currency. Delivered wheat is back by up to £1/t, with ex-farm prices in a similar situation. AHDB put ex-farm wheat at £159/t and barley at £143.90/t.
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