Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary was shouted down by Brexiteers during the UK referendum two years ago when he warned that cheap air travel between British and European airports could be threatened. Perhaps because disruption to air travel is fairly simple to understand, it has become one of the downsides to Brexit, especially to a no-deal Brexit at the end of March next year, that is finally getting through to people.
Once upon a time, until about 25 years ago, air travel in Europe was very different from today’s easy availability of high-frequency and affordable flights around the continent. Access to routes was restricted through protectionist, bilateral agreements between governments, most of which owned loss-making state airlines. Regulation of air safety was done at national level.
Reform
It was the European Union, with enthusiastic support from the UK, which led the reform process. Rights to serve routes across the continent were liberalised to the point where any European carrier is free to operate any route in the EU and in some nearby states which have joined in the “open skies” regime. This has been extended outside Europe in a series of more limited deals concluded by the EU with the United States and several other countries.
A single body called the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) was established in 2002 and the national agencies began implementing bodies under its umbrella. The EASA certifies airports, licences pilots and maintenance personnel and ensures the airworthiness of aircraft in collaboration with the national agencies. It has also entered into mutual recognitions deals with corresponding bodies outside Europe.
The national bodies have fewer functions and fewer technical staff as a consequence – sovereignty has been pooled to mutual benefit, the single market in action. The result is that airlines in the EU system have lost their nationality – if a German or Spanish airline wished to fly from Shannon to Marseilles, there is nothing to stop them, aside possibly from the paucity of passengers.
For the United Kingdom this set of arrangements will cease on 29 March next, unless successor agreements on both air safety and on traffic rights are agreed.
This does not seem to be impossible and could be covered in the 21-month transition period which would be granted to the UK if a withdrawal agreement is signed and ratified in time. But if there is no transition agreement it may already be too late to avoid problems next March. Membership in the EASA is confined to EU members and staff at Britain’s Civil Aviation Authority have already signalled that getting successor agreements as a third country in eight months may exceed their capability.
On traffic rights, there is no shortage of protectionist instincts in the executive suite at the big legacy airlines in continental Europe, who might well perceive an opportunity to put one over on their highly effective UK competitors such as British Airways and EasyJet.
The liberalisation of air passenger services in Europe has been such an obvious boon to the general public that everyone has been assuming that some kind of deal will be done. It really would be insane to go back to the monopoly-driven shambles that was European aviation until the open skies arrangements came along. But Brexit is not an entirely rational process and unintended consequences are cropping up all over the place. It really is conceivable that Michael O’Leary’s warnings were prescient and airports and airlines are beginning to make contingency plans.
How bad could it be?
The extreme case is that airports in the UK would lose their certification and would close. This is so nuts I find it hard to imagine. But airlines need traffic rights to fly and it is conceivable that flights between UK and EU airports would be disrupted in a no-deal scenario since current traffic rights would lapse and would have to be replaced on a bilateral basis with country-by-country treaties. This is a nightmare – even if it could be done, various countries would be lobbied by their airlines to offer restrictive deals to the UK. Passengers love low fares and open skies but some of the continental legacy carriers still mourn the good old days of politicised traffic allocation. It is also possible that UK-operated aircraft would have problems with overflight in European airspace, something alluded to by the Taoiseach in his remarks last week.
A transition deal, offering a standstill on all current arrangements for 21 months after March next, is the obvious way out. But the withdrawal agreement on which transition depends is unresolved, not least because of the failure to date to solve the Irish border conundrum. No withdrawal agreement means no transition. Perhaps the prospect of ridiculous and avoidable aviation chaos will help to stop the no-deal nonsense.
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Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary was shouted down by Brexiteers during the UK referendum two years ago when he warned that cheap air travel between British and European airports could be threatened. Perhaps because disruption to air travel is fairly simple to understand, it has become one of the downsides to Brexit, especially to a no-deal Brexit at the end of March next year, that is finally getting through to people.
Once upon a time, until about 25 years ago, air travel in Europe was very different from today’s easy availability of high-frequency and affordable flights around the continent. Access to routes was restricted through protectionist, bilateral agreements between governments, most of which owned loss-making state airlines. Regulation of air safety was done at national level.
Reform
It was the European Union, with enthusiastic support from the UK, which led the reform process. Rights to serve routes across the continent were liberalised to the point where any European carrier is free to operate any route in the EU and in some nearby states which have joined in the “open skies” regime. This has been extended outside Europe in a series of more limited deals concluded by the EU with the United States and several other countries.
A single body called the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) was established in 2002 and the national agencies began implementing bodies under its umbrella. The EASA certifies airports, licences pilots and maintenance personnel and ensures the airworthiness of aircraft in collaboration with the national agencies. It has also entered into mutual recognitions deals with corresponding bodies outside Europe.
The national bodies have fewer functions and fewer technical staff as a consequence – sovereignty has been pooled to mutual benefit, the single market in action. The result is that airlines in the EU system have lost their nationality – if a German or Spanish airline wished to fly from Shannon to Marseilles, there is nothing to stop them, aside possibly from the paucity of passengers.
For the United Kingdom this set of arrangements will cease on 29 March next, unless successor agreements on both air safety and on traffic rights are agreed.
This does not seem to be impossible and could be covered in the 21-month transition period which would be granted to the UK if a withdrawal agreement is signed and ratified in time. But if there is no transition agreement it may already be too late to avoid problems next March. Membership in the EASA is confined to EU members and staff at Britain’s Civil Aviation Authority have already signalled that getting successor agreements as a third country in eight months may exceed their capability.
On traffic rights, there is no shortage of protectionist instincts in the executive suite at the big legacy airlines in continental Europe, who might well perceive an opportunity to put one over on their highly effective UK competitors such as British Airways and EasyJet.
The liberalisation of air passenger services in Europe has been such an obvious boon to the general public that everyone has been assuming that some kind of deal will be done. It really would be insane to go back to the monopoly-driven shambles that was European aviation until the open skies arrangements came along. But Brexit is not an entirely rational process and unintended consequences are cropping up all over the place. It really is conceivable that Michael O’Leary’s warnings were prescient and airports and airlines are beginning to make contingency plans.
How bad could it be?
The extreme case is that airports in the UK would lose their certification and would close. This is so nuts I find it hard to imagine. But airlines need traffic rights to fly and it is conceivable that flights between UK and EU airports would be disrupted in a no-deal scenario since current traffic rights would lapse and would have to be replaced on a bilateral basis with country-by-country treaties. This is a nightmare – even if it could be done, various countries would be lobbied by their airlines to offer restrictive deals to the UK. Passengers love low fares and open skies but some of the continental legacy carriers still mourn the good old days of politicised traffic allocation. It is also possible that UK-operated aircraft would have problems with overflight in European airspace, something alluded to by the Taoiseach in his remarks last week.
A transition deal, offering a standstill on all current arrangements for 21 months after March next, is the obvious way out. But the withdrawal agreement on which transition depends is unresolved, not least because of the failure to date to solve the Irish border conundrum. No withdrawal agreement means no transition. Perhaps the prospect of ridiculous and avoidable aviation chaos will help to stop the no-deal nonsense.
Read more
Watch and listen: ‘Horses would make money, but I love the cattle'
EU funding for new Brexit-busting ferry
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