Grain markets recovered somewhat from the falls of recent weeks, but have since slipped again. Markets reacted to a range of signals in recent months, but it may be settling down once again to the basics of supply and demand. As global maize production expectations increase, market players seem to be reverting to the old phrase “buy the rumour, sell the fact”.

One might call the current price decline delayed harvest pressure for wheat or anticipated harvest pressure for maize. With the small grains harvest now virtually complete, there is no news to support prices. And with maize left highly competitive, markets can quickly slip away.

ADVERTISEMENT

There have been significant eyes on Russia and its potential to export in 2018/19, but, so far, there is no suggestion of export constraint measures. Meanwhile, its producers are enjoying profitable production due to its weak currency.

This week, the Argentinian government re-imposed taxes on grain exports from that country to help bolster its economy and weakening currency. It also slightly increased its total taxes on soya beans and soya bean products.

Spot native prices to the trade were up slightly in mid-week at €218 to €220/t, with barley around €222/t-plus, with an additional €1 to €2/t for November. November 2019 price positions have weakened and are now back into the €190 to €195/t bracket.