The national deficit for fodder this winter currently stands at three million tonnes, according to a Teagasc survey of 913 farmers. However, these figures allow no room for leeway in terms of a bad autumn, as the average winter on the survey was less than five months (140 days).

“The worst-hit areas are the southeast and south, with 55% of farmers having a deficit of 22%,” said Dr Siobhan Kavanagh from Teagasc at the Inter Agency fodder meeting in Tullamore on Thursday.

“Farmers have got fertiliser out and have kept supplementation in. A lot of maize has been grown and wholecrop bought. So there has been a huge reaction over the last few months.”

Extent of deficit

The extent of the deficit is the same on dairy and drystock farms at 17% and 18%, respectively. In addition, 42% of farmers said they are prepared to sell stock to fill a gap.

In terms of mobilisation of fodder, it is expected to be limited.

“Twenty-five per cent of farmers said they would sell feed if they have a surplus. Nobody is going to see that happen early in the winter,” Kavanagh said.

“Eighty-two per cent said they had sorted bedding. There has been a lot of movement of peat. There is a lot of straw around the country.”

One-third of farmers said that their preferred option to meet the deficit is a combination of straights and manufactured feed, which Kavanagh said could help take pressure off feed mills. Sixty per cent of farmers have not agreed funds to cover the extra cost. Meanwhile, 80% of farmers said they will not change stocking rates going into 2019.

Significant progress is being made

Following the meeting, Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed urged farmers to maximise fodder production this autumn, including by taking advantage of extended spreading dates in September

and October.

"It is clear from the information circulated today that significant progress is being made," Minister Creed said, with the 28% shortage recorded in July brought back to 11% today. However, he warned that a significant deficit remains on many farms.

Weather hope

Other agencies at the meeting in Tullamore on Thursday expressed concern around the hope farmers are placing on weather over the autumn and next spring.

The co-ops all reported that milk volumes and solids have recovered in the last few weeks, even in the worst-hit areas.

Labour availability

But with a lot of silage and maize to be cut in the coming weeks, there is concern around labour availability.

“Contractor credit has gone up and activity is hit-and-miss at the moment. A lot of farmers have eaten through first-cut silage,” said Michael Moroney of the Association of Farm and Forestry Contractors in Ireland.

“Yields are poor, so some are charging €100 to €120 per load rather than per acre. Labour will be an issue with a lot of grass and maize to be cut at once. The student labour available in summer is gone now.”

Messages to farmers

  • Revise the fodder budget regularly through the winter.
  • There will be limited silage available to buy nationally. Farmers will need to stretch silage from the start of the winter.
  • Individual farmers need to do the budgets if deciding to sell stock.
  • Farmers need to agree funds to cover extra costs.
  • Check feeding space to allow restricted silage and meal feeding.
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