International futures prices weakened slightly last week, as markets continued a mainly bearish tone, with maize pressuring wheat. On the wheat front, the news that the Ensus bioethanol plant in Britain is to close temporarily in November will inevitably mean increased wheat exports from Britain.

While another plant closed previously, it was thought that increased internal demand for chicken feed might well consume that surplus. But closure of this second plant (driven by the high cost of grains) will inevitably lead to surplus internal availability.

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Slow exports of wheat from the EU and the US is also a factor in market sentiment. High relative prices are helping to ration demand. Another factor in the market currently is that many European feed producers appear to have over-bought forward and now there are inevitable logistics issues emerging with unloading of stocks likely.

EU rape prices strengthened slightly on the back of global supply availability issues, but soya bean imports are now pressuring EU prices. Native price is currently around €370/t.

Native spot demand is being affected by high forward cover. Prices are largely flat and trade values remain broadly similar at €215 to €220/t for wheat, depending on position, and around €218 to €220/t for barley. November 2019 forward prices suggest €195/t for wheat and €187/t for barley.