Since Theresa May has effectively lost her majority in the House of Commons, attention over the next few weeks will focus on the opposition and particularly on the Labour party and its leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Prime minister May’s withdrawal agreement will be put to parliament, evidently around 10 December, and it is unlikely to pass, at least not on the first occasion. There will be sufficient Conservative opponents to offset the handful of Labour rebels who might support Mrs May.
Corbyn is a Eurosceptic of long standing but leads a party which contains far fewer MPs of that persuasion than do the governing Conservatives.
Surveys confirm that Labour voters also incline to the more pro-European, or soft Brexit, side of the argument. It is worth remembering that Corbyn would not have won the Labour leadership in 2015 had the selection been the preserve of the MPs – he was popular with the more left-leaning party membership, who had the final say and there were subsequent attempts to unseat him by disgruntled parliamentarians.
On Sunday last, Corbyn was interviewed by Sky’s Sophy Ridge and declined a clear answer when asked how he would react if there were to be a second referendum.
He waffled instead about a new general election and asserted the ability of an incoming Labour government to negotiate a better deal for the UK.
Dream on. The choices are no-deal, May’s deal, or just possibly a second referendum and a choice to remain in the EU.
There will be no majority in the Commons for a no-deal crash-out and it is difficult to see the Tory Party agreeing to another election.
If May’s deal is unattractive, the real alternative is a second referendum, which offers the prospect of a Brexit reversal, the ideal outcome for this country.
Second vote
Corbyn’s reluctance to campaign for a second vote is therefore critical. Most of his senior colleagues would be content to follow this route and the European leaders would probably facilitate a second vote through an extension of time. The reaction to date in Ireland, aside from the Democratic Unionist Party, has been to welcome May’s deal, on the basis that it could have been worse.
It certainly could but it is important to understand that a Brexit reversal would be far better.
The May agreement could eventually pass all hurdles, perhaps after a second vote in the House of Commons, if there is nowhere else to go. A first Commons defeat would intensify alarm about a crash-out, causing more fears about business flight, turmoil in the financial markets and second thoughts in Westminster.
Ruling out a second referendum reduces the options to May’s deal or the cliff-edge. If Labour pushed hard for a second vote, there would be a third option and it would be far more difficult to resist.
There has, if Brexit reversal is still a real possibility, been too much of a premature welcome for May’s deal in the Republic. The deal could actually confer a privileged status on Northern Ireland, which has already attracted envious protests from Scottish politicians.
But it could equally place Northern Ireland at a competitive advantage relative to the Republic: some firms might prefer to locate in the North, enjoying easy access to both the European and British markets, with firms in the Republic facing border controls into the latter.
The opposition of the DUP to Theresa May’s deal has irritated business and farm leaders in Northern Ireland for this reason.
While it appears to solve the open border aspect, it is worrying that so little attention is being paid to the possible impact on east-west trade. There could eventually be some new trade deal between the UK and the EU27, which kept an open border with the North via the backstop but which damaged the far more important trade flows between the Republic and Britain.
Opponents
The most vociferous opponents of a second referendum are of course the ultra-Brexiteers on the Tory right, who Theresa May has sought to appease from the very early stages of her premiership.
But they have now defected, are threatening to unseat her as Tory leader and will vote against her draft withdrawal agreement in any event. The attempt to keep them on board has already failed.
A second referendum might of course produce the same result as the first. But recent opinion polls suggest that Remain could win, albeit narrowly, and there is no obvious downside to a second vote from the Republic’s standpoint.
The conversion of Corbyn and the Labour leadership to a second vote would make it an attractive escape hatch for many Remain-leaning Conservatives. Tánaiste Simon Coveney was helping to keep the option alive in his remarks last weekend and he is surely right to do so.
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Brexit: 'We need a deal' – Marshall
Since Theresa May has effectively lost her majority in the House of Commons, attention over the next few weeks will focus on the opposition and particularly on the Labour party and its leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Prime minister May’s withdrawal agreement will be put to parliament, evidently around 10 December, and it is unlikely to pass, at least not on the first occasion. There will be sufficient Conservative opponents to offset the handful of Labour rebels who might support Mrs May.
Corbyn is a Eurosceptic of long standing but leads a party which contains far fewer MPs of that persuasion than do the governing Conservatives.
Surveys confirm that Labour voters also incline to the more pro-European, or soft Brexit, side of the argument. It is worth remembering that Corbyn would not have won the Labour leadership in 2015 had the selection been the preserve of the MPs – he was popular with the more left-leaning party membership, who had the final say and there were subsequent attempts to unseat him by disgruntled parliamentarians.
On Sunday last, Corbyn was interviewed by Sky’s Sophy Ridge and declined a clear answer when asked how he would react if there were to be a second referendum.
He waffled instead about a new general election and asserted the ability of an incoming Labour government to negotiate a better deal for the UK.
Dream on. The choices are no-deal, May’s deal, or just possibly a second referendum and a choice to remain in the EU.
There will be no majority in the Commons for a no-deal crash-out and it is difficult to see the Tory Party agreeing to another election.
If May’s deal is unattractive, the real alternative is a second referendum, which offers the prospect of a Brexit reversal, the ideal outcome for this country.
Second vote
Corbyn’s reluctance to campaign for a second vote is therefore critical. Most of his senior colleagues would be content to follow this route and the European leaders would probably facilitate a second vote through an extension of time. The reaction to date in Ireland, aside from the Democratic Unionist Party, has been to welcome May’s deal, on the basis that it could have been worse.
It certainly could but it is important to understand that a Brexit reversal would be far better.
The May agreement could eventually pass all hurdles, perhaps after a second vote in the House of Commons, if there is nowhere else to go. A first Commons defeat would intensify alarm about a crash-out, causing more fears about business flight, turmoil in the financial markets and second thoughts in Westminster.
Ruling out a second referendum reduces the options to May’s deal or the cliff-edge. If Labour pushed hard for a second vote, there would be a third option and it would be far more difficult to resist.
There has, if Brexit reversal is still a real possibility, been too much of a premature welcome for May’s deal in the Republic. The deal could actually confer a privileged status on Northern Ireland, which has already attracted envious protests from Scottish politicians.
But it could equally place Northern Ireland at a competitive advantage relative to the Republic: some firms might prefer to locate in the North, enjoying easy access to both the European and British markets, with firms in the Republic facing border controls into the latter.
The opposition of the DUP to Theresa May’s deal has irritated business and farm leaders in Northern Ireland for this reason.
While it appears to solve the open border aspect, it is worrying that so little attention is being paid to the possible impact on east-west trade. There could eventually be some new trade deal between the UK and the EU27, which kept an open border with the North via the backstop but which damaged the far more important trade flows between the Republic and Britain.
Opponents
The most vociferous opponents of a second referendum are of course the ultra-Brexiteers on the Tory right, who Theresa May has sought to appease from the very early stages of her premiership.
But they have now defected, are threatening to unseat her as Tory leader and will vote against her draft withdrawal agreement in any event. The attempt to keep them on board has already failed.
A second referendum might of course produce the same result as the first. But recent opinion polls suggest that Remain could win, albeit narrowly, and there is no obvious downside to a second vote from the Republic’s standpoint.
The conversion of Corbyn and the Labour leadership to a second vote would make it an attractive escape hatch for many Remain-leaning Conservatives. Tánaiste Simon Coveney was helping to keep the option alive in his remarks last weekend and he is surely right to do so.
Read more
Brexit bounce for Irish seaports?
Brexit: 'We need a deal' – Marshall
SHARING OPTIONS