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The British prime minister Theresa May will be back in Brussels this Sunday at a special meeting of the European Council, hoping that leaders of the EU27 endorse the EU/UK draft withdrawal agreement presented last week.
The draft text has been widely welcomed by agri food lobby groups across Ireland, north and south, who have become increasingly fearful of the disruption that a no deal Brexit might bring.
The withdrawal agreement potentially solves that problem, allowing the UK and EU to enter into a transition period (where everything stays the same) to discuss future trade, and proposes a backstop solution to the problem issue of the Irish border. That backstop would only apply if a better arrangement cannot be found as part of a future trade deal.
Under the backstop, the UK stays in the EU customs territory and, in addition, NI stays in the EU single market for goods.
EU tariffs
By being in the EU customs territory, it means that the UK would apply EU tariffs on imports and would have to get EU agreement before allowing in any products tariff-free. For NI, the relationship is deeper, and goods produced here would have to meet EU rules to allow them to flow unhindered across EU borders (and access EU trade deals).
There is also a guarantee of “unfettered” access to Britain for NI business, although trade in the opposite direction (mostly food products) would be subject to some increased checks.
So on the face of it, it is a good outcome for all Irish farmers, as the backstop arrangement would allow frictionless trade across Ireland, and crucially, would prevent the UK from doing deals with non-EU countries, and bringing in cheap food, tariff-free.
Food processors in NI, and those in wider manufacturing, have generally embraced the deal, as has the Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU), which initially gave it a cautious welcome.
However, not all UFU members back the proposed deal, and a significant number share the concerns of unionist politicians that NI could, over time, be cut adrift from its main market in Britain.
Key issue
Perhaps the key issue is that there is a mechanism in the draft withdrawal agreement (albeit it would have to be agreed with the EU) that the UK could get out of a customs arrangement.
However, there is no mechanism for NI to get out of its backstop (whereby goods from NI meet EU single market rules). So there is potentially a situation down the line when the UK and EU decide to go separate ways, leaving NI in the EU single market.
At the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) conference this week, May was clear that the UK will have the freedom to sign free trade deals around the rest of the world after Brexit. It suggests the UK might not be in the EU customs territory for too long.
Ultimately, it is the UK government that will effectively put a border down the Irish Sea, and if it ever happens, it will be bad for farmers across this island.
We want the right deal, not no deal
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) wants to see a sensible and orderly exit from the European Union, which delivers on the referendum result in all areas of the UK, Diane Dodds, DUP MEP has said.
‘‘Throughout this process we have clearly stated that we will not accept a deal which divides the UK either economically or constitutionally.
‘‘We have also repeatedly stated that we want a deal which works for our neighbours in the Republic of Ireland recognising the interconnectedness of this economy with both Britain and Northern Ireland (NI).
‘‘Even European Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development Phil Hogan has been reported to have warned that “no country has as much exposure to Brexit as Ireland, with our agri-food sector particularly at risk”. So access to the UK internal market and the avoidance of a no-deal scenario are of paramount importance here as well.’’
She said the focus on the deal has been primarily on the backstop proposal.
‘‘Indeed, the Brexit withdrawal agreement devotes 68 pages of text to outlining the particular rules and regulations. In practical terms, the application of the backstop would see NI hand control of agriculture and manufacturing to the European Union without any ability in London or Belfast to change those rules. Paragraph 50 of the December 2017 report which would allow for the consent of the NI Assembly is not reflected within the withdrawal agreement. It is little wonder then that Dominic Raab reported that the Cabinet had been advised that ‘NI would be treated as a third country in terms of regulation’.’’
Border
Dodds said it is fair to suggest that this regulatory border within the UK’s internal market will throw up problems for NI. ‘‘We sell more in the British market than in the EU, RoI and the rest of the world put together. Equally, it is the marketplace where we buy most goods either for the high street or within the manufacturing process. Unimpeded access is vital.
‘‘The withdrawal agreement only suggests that both the EU and the UK will use their “best endeavours” to facilitate trade between NI and Britain (Article7(2)). It is not hard to extrapolate from this that over time NI will have difficulty in meeting UK-wide industry standards, including the likes of the Red Tractor Standard, if NI legislation does not keep pace with the rest of the UK.’’
The MEP said many commentators have chided the party for being too focused on the backstop, but she said paragraph 2 of the goods section on the future relationship makes it very clear that the future arrangements will build on the single customs territory provided for in the withdrawal agreement.
‘‘It is also clear that while the prime minister may have forced this deal through her Cabinet, she will have real difficulty in getting it through parliament. She has presented her deal as a binary choice between the draft agreement and no deal. This is a false and misleading argument, meant to scare and bully us into acceptance of a deal where there are real dangers for NI.
‘‘We are not advocates of a no deal Brexit. We are advocates of the right deal and want an orderly withdrawal of the UK from the EU.’’
Nicholson critical of UK negotiation
Ulster Unionist MEP Jim Nicholson was critical of the UK negotiation of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in an interview with the Irish Farmers Journal in Brussels this week.
He said he was “not looking at the short term but what happens in five, 10 or 15 years from now, and questioned: “Who is going to control or oversee the making of regulation of farmers in NI?”
Glyphosate
By way of example, Jim Nicholson chose glyphosate. The debate in the EU would have led to a ban if the UK had not been present.
Visualising a revisiting of the glyphosate debate post Brexit, he is of the view that “the EU would move to ban it, the UK would likely approve it, so where does that leave NI”.
Food industry
He said he “understands and empathises with the position of the UFU and food industry” in relation to a no-deal Brexit, but believes “there is more room for manoeuvre, more negotiation” and it was about “getting the best deal, not any deal.”
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