The long-predicted leadership heave against the UK prime minister arrived as we went to press though it looks like Theresa May has the votes to see it off. Technically that means she cannot be challenged for another year but the vibe around Westminster on Wednesday was that she wanted to see Brexit through and then she would move on.

The problem is that even with winning a confidence vote, plenty of Conservative MPs will join the opposition in opposing the withdrawal agreement and it looks like her arrangement with the DUP, which her minority Government depends on in Parliament, is gone. This leaves her to govern without a majority, a most precarious position that is usually resolved by a general election.

The fast-moving political scene in Westminster is a diversion from the biggest constitutional change the UK will make this century and one that has huge consequences for farmers either side of the border on the island of Ireland. Assuming the PM survives the confidence vote on Wednesday evening, it means the problem with the withdrawal agreement just reverts to where she parked it by pulling the vote on it in Parliament. So, what happens next?

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  • 1 The prime minister renegotiates the withdrawal agreement and secures support of parliament for the new deal. The EU has stated explicitly that this will not happen but Brexit advocates in parliament believe the EU will renegotiate if they have to.
  • 2 The prime minister, even with winning the confidence vote in her party, is still unlikely to command a majority of MPs for her withdrawal agreement in parliament. This won’t cause the government to fall because of the fixed parliament act, but it could cause a vote of confidence which, if the government lost, would lead to a general election.
  • 3 If the Labour Party was to win an election, they believe they could do a better deal based on continued customs union membership. However, there isn’t sufficient time for a general election, a negotiation by a new government and complying with the UK and EU parliamentary process ahead of Brexit on 29 March 2019.
  • 4 An application could be made to delay the Brexit beyond 29 March and, if it was a new Labour government, the EU would readily grant a three-month extension. After that, difficulties arise with the new European Parliament set to convene in July.
  • 5 Parliament could decide to go back to the people with a second referendum to choose between a no-deal Brexit and staying in the EU. An alternative choice may be Brexit on the terms of the current withdrawal agreement or remaining in the EU.
  • 6 As the referendum isn’t binding but advisory, parliament could decide to disregard it and opt to remain in the EU. That would be very unpopular with the electorate and no politician has said they would not follow the decision in the referendum.
  • 7 If a withdrawal deal isn’t concluded, the UK will leave the EU on 29th March 2019 and subsequent trade will be conducted under WTO rules. This could happen accidentally if Parliament cannot decide on accepting the withdrawal agreement, requesting an extension of EU membership or revoking the Article 50 application to leave the EU.