Talk about African swine fever (ASF) – the major pig disease which is wiping out China’s pig herd was very much the elephant in the room at the SIAL trade fair in China this week.
SIAL China is the largest food trade fair in the world and a favourite haunt of meat exporters from around the world.
The trade fair affords everyone an opportunity to meet Chinese buyers and strike up relationships and contacts. Business cards move like confetti through the massive exhibition halls of SIAL in Shanghai.
But ASF was only discussed in hushed tones. There is a natural reluctance to display any sign of glee at the impending opportunity the disease undoubtedly presents for meat-exporting nations.
The line from the Irish Government parties was that Ireland is offering assistance to China in any way it can.
Overt offers of as much meat as you like, even if that is what people were thinking, certainly wasn’t what they were saying.
The biggest losers from ASF will be the small and already impoverished Chinese farmers and nobody likes to see this happening.
Official Chinese government statistics suggest that 20% of the pig herd was culled to the end of March, but analysts say that this figure is now much higher.
Reduced output
Rabobank estimates that the Chinese pig meat output will be down 15bn tonnes in 2019. To put this in context, the largest annual change in global pork output over the last decade has been about 3bn tonnes, so a 15bn tonne drop is enormous volatility.
In Rabobank’s worst-case scenario, the Chinese pig herd drops from almost 450m head to just over 260m head.
A meat counter in Shanghai, China. \ Aidan Brennan
One of the major issues is that a high proportion of China’s pig herd is in small herds of less than 30 sows. This is enabling the disease to spread like wildfire through the country.
When Russia went down with ASF, these small herds were culled and weren’t allowed to restock, moving production to large and professionally managed pig units. However, building these units and stocking them with pigs will take some years.
Pork prices
According to Irish pork exporters at SIAL, while the price of pork has increased in China they aren’t planning to dump existing markets just to satisfy demand in China.
One exporter told me that massive supplies of pork from South America are already on the seas and destined for China.
The thing is, the upside of ASF is not who supplies the extra pork to China. The upside is that China is going to be deficient in all protein sources.
According to Chenjun Pan from Rabobank, the Chinese protein deficit will be 10m tonnes in 2019, despite increased pork, beef and poultry imports into China and increased culling from the domestic and largely loss-making dairy herd.
The biggest beneficiary of ASF will likely be the Brazilian poultry sector as poultry meat and eggs will be the immediate go-to when pork gets scarce.
Consumption
The Chinese are big pork consumers, which is why ASF is such a big issue. Walking around the food halls and markets in Shanghai, pork occupies more shop floor space than any other meat.
The Chinese eat less than half the amount of beef per capita compared with Europeans at about 4kg per capita per year, but eat almost the same amount of pork as Europeans at 31kg per capita in 2018.
There is currently no shortage of pork in Shanghai's more affluent shops and markets despite the outbreak of African swine fever in China. \ Aidan Brennan
There are no shortages of pork in central Shanghai just yet, nor have pork prices increased at retail level. Unless they are reading foreign farming publications, the average Shanghai shopper is totally oblivious to ASF, and that is the way the government will like it to remain.
However, looking at the macro figures, it’s more a case of when, and not if, ASF will start to influence what the Chinese shopper can find and afford to eat. Reports of pork shortages are already emerging in less affluent parts of China.
Read more
Chinese to fast-track inspection of Irish beef and sheep plants – Creed
Beef exports to China will 'more than double' in 2019 – Creed
Global meat prices to soar as Chinese shortage bites
Talk about African swine fever (ASF) – the major pig disease which is wiping out China’s pig herd was very much the elephant in the room at the SIAL trade fair in China this week.
SIAL China is the largest food trade fair in the world and a favourite haunt of meat exporters from around the world.
The trade fair affords everyone an opportunity to meet Chinese buyers and strike up relationships and contacts. Business cards move like confetti through the massive exhibition halls of SIAL in Shanghai.
But ASF was only discussed in hushed tones. There is a natural reluctance to display any sign of glee at the impending opportunity the disease undoubtedly presents for meat-exporting nations.
The line from the Irish Government parties was that Ireland is offering assistance to China in any way it can.
Overt offers of as much meat as you like, even if that is what people were thinking, certainly wasn’t what they were saying.
The biggest losers from ASF will be the small and already impoverished Chinese farmers and nobody likes to see this happening.
Official Chinese government statistics suggest that 20% of the pig herd was culled to the end of March, but analysts say that this figure is now much higher.
Reduced output
Rabobank estimates that the Chinese pig meat output will be down 15bn tonnes in 2019. To put this in context, the largest annual change in global pork output over the last decade has been about 3bn tonnes, so a 15bn tonne drop is enormous volatility.
In Rabobank’s worst-case scenario, the Chinese pig herd drops from almost 450m head to just over 260m head.
A meat counter in Shanghai, China. \ Aidan Brennan
One of the major issues is that a high proportion of China’s pig herd is in small herds of less than 30 sows. This is enabling the disease to spread like wildfire through the country.
When Russia went down with ASF, these small herds were culled and weren’t allowed to restock, moving production to large and professionally managed pig units. However, building these units and stocking them with pigs will take some years.
Pork prices
According to Irish pork exporters at SIAL, while the price of pork has increased in China they aren’t planning to dump existing markets just to satisfy demand in China.
One exporter told me that massive supplies of pork from South America are already on the seas and destined for China.
The thing is, the upside of ASF is not who supplies the extra pork to China. The upside is that China is going to be deficient in all protein sources.
According to Chenjun Pan from Rabobank, the Chinese protein deficit will be 10m tonnes in 2019, despite increased pork, beef and poultry imports into China and increased culling from the domestic and largely loss-making dairy herd.
The biggest beneficiary of ASF will likely be the Brazilian poultry sector as poultry meat and eggs will be the immediate go-to when pork gets scarce.
Consumption
The Chinese are big pork consumers, which is why ASF is such a big issue. Walking around the food halls and markets in Shanghai, pork occupies more shop floor space than any other meat.
The Chinese eat less than half the amount of beef per capita compared with Europeans at about 4kg per capita per year, but eat almost the same amount of pork as Europeans at 31kg per capita in 2018.
There is currently no shortage of pork in Shanghai's more affluent shops and markets despite the outbreak of African swine fever in China. \ Aidan Brennan
There are no shortages of pork in central Shanghai just yet, nor have pork prices increased at retail level. Unless they are reading foreign farming publications, the average Shanghai shopper is totally oblivious to ASF, and that is the way the government will like it to remain.
However, looking at the macro figures, it’s more a case of when, and not if, ASF will start to influence what the Chinese shopper can find and afford to eat. Reports of pork shortages are already emerging in less affluent parts of China.
Read more
Chinese to fast-track inspection of Irish beef and sheep plants – Creed
Beef exports to China will 'more than double' in 2019 – Creed
Global meat prices to soar as Chinese shortage bites
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