There are interesting times ahead, with a new British Prime Minister in the form of Boris Johnson.

Despite his threat to take the UK out of the EU without a deal, it would still be a surprise if that were to happen. It is easy to take positions and make big promises outside of government, but with power comes responsibility.

Bringing economic hardship onto working people in the pursuit of a pure form of Brexit is not a responsible action. Assuming, therefore, that he does pursue a new deal with the EU, the so-called Irish backstop will be the main issue up for discussion. Brexiteers like Johnson hate it because it potentially locks all of the UK into a customs union with the EU.

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The UK government suggested a UK-wide customs union to placate DUP concerns that NI could be cut off from the rest of Britain

But remember, this part of the draft withdrawal agreement came at the request of the British government. The EU had suggested that to keep the Irish border open, NI will remain in the EU customs union and follow some single market rules.

The UK government suggested a UK-wide customs union to placate DUP concerns that NI could be cut off from the rest of Britain.

There is a thought process, particularly in Britain, that the new Prime Minister could be persuaded to go back to the original text – that would leave NI in the EU customs union and Britain free to plot its own course. How that works given his dependence on DUP votes is unclear, but it would be a bad outcome for farmers – it is EU trade tariffs that help maintain the value of the British market.

It concluded that a no-deal exit would be disastrous for beef and sheep farmers

That message was reinforced this week by a report compiled by experts from the Leicestershire-based Andersons Centre, which looked at the impact of Brexit on the UK beef and sheep industry.

It concluded that a no-deal exit would be disastrous for beef and sheep farmers.

On the other hand, leaving with a deal, and putting in place a comprehensive free-trading agreement, which also involves a customs arrangement, would have minimal impact on prices. These are the sort of facts now confronting the new Prime Minister.

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