2019 autumn consequences: No two seasons are the same and 2019 is a damn good example of this. Just 50-60% of 2018’s winter crop area has been sown. However, poor planting conditions and patchy emergence, pest and crow pressure and ongoing wet ground conditions mean that there are now many cases of crop failure in fields this year. In some cases this is confined to a few wet spots and headlands, in more serious cases however entire fields may have to be re-sown in the spring. The decision to re-sow or not will come next year, but it will be hard to justify the costs and changes in management regimes for small areas only.

Pigeons in rape: There have been some reports of increased pigeon pressure in winter oilseed rape. Backward crops and fields with patchy areas are generally at greater risk. While giving pigeons free rein to graze oilseed crops may not result in a definite yield penalty, it may lead to non-uniform crops and subsequent management difficulties. Badly grazed crops will also need more nitrogen in spring to drive canopy growth. Try to prevent attacks as once pigeons settle in it can be hard to move them on.

On the ground inspections: Less than two weeks until Christmas, take this opportunity to walk winter crops and assess what’s happening on the ground. There were little autumn herbicides applied this year, so take stock of weeds in your fields to help inform spring weed control strategies. Be mindful however that more weeds may emerge from now until next spring. Reports of aphid activity are low but reports of slug movements are high in places. Where grazing is evident and where numbers are high, (3-4 slugs per trap in cereals) then action may be required.

Crop budgets: The winter months are a great chance to see how current expenditure in your winter crop budget stacks up against your budgeted expenditure. This is also the time to develop a budget for your spring crops.

Budgets must include all costs, including fixed costs. Once you have a budget of expected crop production costs, you can then watch all forward price offers for next harvest and beyond. We are all aware of the importance of covering an amount of margin through forward selling if and when the opportunity presents itself. If you haven’t started your crop budget for the 2020 season, then it’s not too late to start.

Another interesting exercise is to check to see how robust and cost sensitive your budget is to changing grain prices. Three green prices make for good tests – €120/t, €140/t and €160/t. At the lower price levels, the margins can be sobering and will make you think hard about your costs.

2020 dates for your diary: It’s worth putting a few dates in your diary for important conferences next year. The joint CAFRE, UAS and UFU Arable Conference takes place in Greenmount, Co Antrim on Tuesday 14 of January and the Teagasc National Tillage Conference takes place in the Lyrath Convention Centre, Co Kilkenny on Wednesday 29 January.

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