Another week of mixed market movements, driven largely by weather and crop condition reports. Support for oil prices and increases in ethanol production led to some gains in US maize futures last week. However, this support was shortlived, as the US Department of Agriculture gave a favourable assessment of crop conditions in the country.

Approximately 75% of the US maize crop and 72% of its soya bean crop was rated as good to excellent, above analyst expectations. The US wheat harvest is also under way, at around 12% complete.

Closer to home, wheat future prices continue to be variable, at least in part due to uncertainty over the impact of unfavourable weather on crops in Europe and the Black Sea region.

Wheat future prices continue to be variable, at least in part due to uncertainty over the impact of unfavourable weather on crops in Europe and the Black Sea

It is this uncertainty which has been holding support. However, rain has arrived and is still expected in some western and northern European regions, as well as parts of Russia. This will help to alleviate some of the dryness pressure. However, for the key Russian regions of Krasnodar, Rostov and Volgograd, a lack of rainfall is still an issue.

Last week was a busy week for US soya bean exports, with 1.026m tonnes (mt) in confirmed export sales to China and other destinations. This news is supportive for soya bean markets after state-owned Chinese firms paused purchases of some US agricultural products after the recent escalation of tensions between China and the US.

The latest crop development report released by the AHDB suggests the country could be heading into the worst season of rapeseed production so far this millennium.

With another increase in China’s purchases anticipated, world trade of the crop was projected to expand by 4%

The International Grain Council recently stated that world total grains production in 2020/21 was projected to be at an all-time high of 2,230 mt, including record harvests of wheat (+4mt) and maize (+50mt). The first rise in global grains stocks for four seasons was predicted. However, this increase in grain supply would be matched by an expected record world grain trade later this season.

Given the prospects of a much larger US crop, 2020/21 global soya bean production was predicted to rise by 8%, to 363mt. With another increase in China’s purchases anticipated, world trade of the crop was projected to expand by 4%.

Similar to last week, lack of market activity means there is little in the way of real native prices to report. Reported physical prices are generally similar to last week.

Native wheat remains around €200/t, with barley remaining at €170/t. New-crop prices remain in the €190 to €192/t bracket for wheat, with barley around €168 to €170/t.

This week, Glanbia offered €157 for green wheat and €135 for green barley. This offer does not include any co-op members’ payments.