Eating outside the home has collapsed so much due to COVID-19 that the island of Ireland foodservice market this year is less than half what it was in 2019.

Bord Bia’s 2020 Market Insights Report puts the 2020 trade at €4.5bn, compared with €8.5bn last year. Sales are expected to be €3.3bn in the Republic of Ireland and €1.2bn in Northern Ireland, with estimates used for November and December. This is down from €6.3bn and €2.2bn, respectively, in 2019.

Serious disruption

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COVID-19 caused serious disruption to the hospitality sector, ranging from shutdown to being open with restrictions and reduced capacity. Similarly, the huge increase in working from home has led to a collapse in demand in the lunchtime food-to-go trade that serviced many offices.

The report forecasts a recovery in 2021 of 16% in the worst-case scenario, and up to 41% recovery in a best-case scenario, dictated by the extent that COVID-19 remains an issue next year.

Maureen Gahan, foodservice specialist with Bord Bia, said: “The changing landscape will have a long-term impact on revenue and profitability – everything from the drive from consumers for keener value pricing, to the shift away from city centre and high street locations to the challenge of recruiting and training new staff.”

The report’s findings were presented at Bord Bia’s Virtual Foodservice Seminar in the RDS, Dublin on Wednesday.