Fertiliser prices are changing on a daily basis in what is being described as “a crazy market” by the industry, one in which prices cannot be obtained for some product until it is loaded onto the boat.

It looks unlikely that there will be the traditional dip in prices expected at the end of March, as increased demand and tight supplies drive prices of nitrogen and di-ammonium phosphate.

Nitrogen is particularly tight, especially urea, and some retailers are out of stock of urea.

Some merchants have already moved urea prices to between €400/t and €410/t, while this week there are reports that there will be further price increases into March and April, with €400/t likely to be the price paid by the merchant for delivery next month.

Industry reports are that, since last September, Yara has made seven price increases for CAN to the fertiliser industry in Europe. Similar prices generally filter through to Ireland. Four of these increases have been in the past four weeks.

The farm gate price is likely to be substantially higher on CAN, adding on at least €40/t for packing and logistics

CAN delivered last October was available at €184/t. By mid- to late January, this price moved to €230/t for February delivery.

This week, CAN for delivery in April is priced at €258/t, with limited availability reported. This suggests buyers may not be able to purchase in desired quantities and threatens further price volatility.

The farm gate price is likely to be substantially higher on CAN, adding on at least €40/t for packing and logistics before it ever reaches the co-op or merchant’s yard. Merchants will be using replacement stock to cushion prices, but how long this will last is unknown.

Many still seem to be balancing the books with a range in prices available. For example, CAN is ranging from €250/t to €285/t this week in the south and prices in the north are at £235-242/t.

Good value remains in potassium. This year may be one to build K levels.