With the energy supply sector switching away from coal-fired power, and more electricity being generated from renewables, it means that NI agriculture will account for a rising share of future greenhouse gas emissions, projections published by DAERA indicate.

Under the current carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) system used to assess emissions, NI agriculture was the source of 26% of the total in 2019. Analysis by the Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute (AFBI) suggests that by 2030 this will rise to 31%.

Over the same period, the energy supply sector is expected to reduce emissions by 51%, so its share goes from 13% to 8%.

Around two-thirds of agricultural emissions are accounted for by methane produced by ruminant animals

From 1990 to 2019, agriculture increased emissions by 8%, although that trend is expected to be reversed between 2019 and 2030, with emissions falling 3%.

Around two-thirds of agricultural emissions are accounted for by methane produced by ruminant animals.

However, as pointed out on numerous occasions, it is highly questionable whether CO2e is a fair and accurate way to assess this biogenic methane as it is a short-lived gas in the atmosphere.

Land use

The other sector struggling to reduce emissions under the current accounting system is ‘land use change’, with the projections suggesting it will actually increase emissions by 20% between 2019 and 2030.

In 2019, it accounted for 12% of emissions, and by 2030 this is projected to rise to 17% of the NI total.

However, prior to 2019, official figures suggested land use change accounted for just over 2% of all NI emissions.

That all changed in 2019 when new methodology was utilised to assess the impact of drainage and drying out of peat soils. The updated figures are now based on guidelines published in the 2013 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) wetlands supplement.

The other major source of land use emissions are cropland (1MtCO2e) and settlements (0.9MtCO2e)

As a result, estimated emissions from wetlands in NI were increased in 2019 from 0.1 million tonnes of CO2e (MtCO2e) to 1.4MtCO2e, and all the data going back to 1990 was revised.

The other major source of land use emissions are cropland (1MtCO2e) and settlements (0.9MtCO2e).

The 2019 estimates suggest grassland sequestered 0.2MtCO2e and forestland took in 0.5MtCO2e.

Targets

Overall, NI GHG emissions are estimated to be down 18% on the baseline from 1990, and are expected to fall a further 18% to 2030, meaning that in the period from 1990 to 2030, it is a 32% reduction. To reach net zero by 2050, the UK government has set a number of interim targets, including for UK-wide GHG emissions to be down 78% by 2035 when compared to the 1990 baseline.

Read more

Bailey and media overtalk methane effect

Separate methane as part of new climate goal