International grain prices remain supported by the war between Russia and Ukraine. The trade’s concerns remain for the tightening of global available supplies this season, as well as increasing focus on what this may mean for next season too.

Ukrainian grain exports via rail are reportedly experiencing large delays and ports remain closed.

This means competitively priced Russian wheat is reportedly picking up demand from large importer Egypt, as well as other North African and Middle East countries.

Looking to next season, Ukrainian grain harvest is forecast to be down 20% year-on-year due to reduced planted area.

The latest G20 Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) report showed Ukrainian wheat production as an area to "watch" for the wheat outlook. Dryness in the US and in south/eastern Europe were also watch points, the AHDB reports.

WASDE

Last Friday’s USDA world supply and demand estimates (WASDE) forecast increased Russian (+1Mt) wheat exports and reduced Ukrainian (-1Mt) exports.

Overall, the global wheat balanced tightened to below trade expectations, as ending stock reduced 3.1Mt to 278.4Mt, the AHDB reports. This is due to a reduction in global imports (-4.1Mt) and increased global total domestic use (+3.8Mt), despite reducing global exports (-3.0Mt).

As a result, Chicago wheat futures (May-22) increased $11.57/t to close at $386.32/t on Friday.

Maize

The global maize supply and demand balance eased slightly in the latest WASDE. World ending stocks for 2021/22 were increased 4.5Mt, to 305.5Mt. This was mostly down to increases in production forecasts in Brazil (+2.0Mt), the EU (+0.7Mt) and Southeast Asia (+0.7Mt). Brazilian first-crop maize harvest is now 51.6% complete.