Farmgate prices are the primary focus for farmers in every sector and all have been under pressure over recent weeks and months, with the exception of pigmeat where prices have recovered from the disaster of 2021 and 2022.
The value of our meat and dairy products is shaped by international markets, given that we export around 90% of our total agri-food production.
Looking at the value of our exports gives an indication on the strength or otherwise of these markets though as with all average data, there are several unknown factors that make up this price in addition to what processors pay their farmer suppliers for the raw material supplies of milk, beef, sheep and pigmeat.
Access to market data on value of produce leaving Irish factories is limited to what is published by the CSO on a monthly basis and banded into categories by Bord Bia (see Figures 1 to 4).
The most recent data available is for May, which means we can analyse volume and value performance for the first five months of 2023 and this has been compared with the previous two years on a sector-by-sector basis.
Looking at Figure 1, dairy export values in 2023 are extremely healthy at €2.4bn for the 593,244t exported, which is €4,120 per tonne (t). This compares favourably with the €2.2bn in the same period in 2022 on 583,885t of product, which works out at €3,769t and €1.7bn on 580,064t at €2,995t fromJanuary to May 2021.
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index (Figure 5) shows that world dairy prices surged in 2021 and peaked at 1,593 points in March 2022. Since then, it has been a downward trend dropping below 1,000 points for the first time since November 2020 and currently is at 959 points.
Looked at it in the context of current global dairy markets, Irish exports have performed exceptionally well. However, current average Irish dairy export values aren’t dictated only by current global market values.
David Kennedy, head of dairy in Bord Bia explained to the Irish Farmers Journal that while monthly export values were ahead of last year, they in fact dipped below last year in April and May.
He said that Irish export values tend to lag behind spot market values by a few months, which means that Irish exports were running behind global markets when they were coming to their peak in early 2022 and, this year, the global downturn wasn’t reflected in Irish export values during the first three months.
This changed in April and May and there is little optimism for the immediate future in the dairy trade based on recent global dairy market indicators.
Kennedy also highlighted a change in the product mix of Irish dairy exports in 2023 as a contributor to a higher relative value per tonne than was the case in the same period last year. He said: “In the first quarter this year, butter export values are 20% higher than last year, while cheese was up 13%. Both of these are higher-value products and therefore their greater share of Irish dairy output means a higher overall average dairy price per tonne.”
Looking at the export value data up to May 2023, the Irish beef sector was in good shape. The value of Irish beef exports was €1.051bn for the first five months of the year compared with €1.039bn in the same period last year and €785m in 2021.
Volumes in 2023 were lower at 190,637t compared with 202,370t in the same period last year which makes the value per tonne €5,515 in 2023 compared to €5,136t in the same period last year carcase weight equivalent.
Commenting on the lower volume of exports in 2023, Bord Bia’s beef and livestock sector manager, Joe Burke believes that factories had started freezing lower-value trimmings and flanks in April and May in the belief that they would sell better later in the year but, so far, there is no sign of this happening in either Britain or anywhere in the EU.
At a farm gate level, beef prices were in good shape during the first five months of 2023, peaking at €5.28/kg (excluding vat) during May.
It was only at the end of that month that prices began to fall and that has continued week on week since then.
The Irish beef price lagged behind the UK by around 30c/kg for much of the spring, but this has doubled to over 60c/kg such has been the rapid fall in Irish prices over recent weeks.
The other striking feature of Irish beef exports this year has been the further fall in sales outside the EU and increasing dependence on the UK market.
The UK took just under 50% of Irish beef exports between January and May this year compared with 44.6% last year and 42.6% between January and May 2021. Exports beyond the UK and EU had grown to 13.8% between January and May 2021 but this has plummeted to just 6% in the first five months of this year despite China reopening.
Unlike beef and dairy export values in the first five months, sheepmeat export value showed a drop to €6,092t compared with €6,320t in the first five months of last year and remains just above the €5,990t value in the same period in 2021.
The volume exported in 2023 is closely aligned with last year at 30,392t, and remains well ahead of the 24,780t exported between January and May 2021.
The value of sheepmeat exports this year is €185,162, down from €191,645 in the same period last year.
Although down to 5,906t in the first five months of 2023, the UK is still a significant export market for Irish sheepmeat and this will be under increasing pressure with the UK-New Zealand and UK-Australia trade deals coming into effect from 1 June.
Sales to the EU were in line with 2022 at 21,433t and while exports beyond the EU recovered in 2023 to 3,053t, this figure is still below the 3,184t exported in 2021.
US market
North America is growing slowly at 535t so far this year, with Canada the main market while veterinary certification with the US remains to be finalised.
Pigmeat exports have fallen a substantial 20% to 80,453t between January and May 2023 and the same period in 2021 when over 100,000t was exported.
Sales to Asian markets, particularly China, have fallen dramatically as they recovered from the African swine fever outbreak which decimated their herd. Export value per tonne has increased to €2,444t this year, up from €2,088t last year and just slightly ahead of 2021 values of €2,305t.
After the nightmare pig farmers experienced in 2022, prices are now a relatively healthy €2.23/kg at present and have been on this plateau since May. It is a marked improvement on the disastrous €1.67/kg being paid in May 2022 and in May 2021, all prices excluding vat.
Of course, rising energy and feed prices hit pig production costs hard and this has offset much of the market improvement over the past year.
Less production
Peter Duggan, head of pigs and poultry in Bord Bia, explained that the recent changed fortunes for pig farmers were down to less production in Europe.
“EU production will be down around 21m tonnes, or 10%, between last year and this year. This has meant a 30% drop in Irish imports of pigmeat and, as a result, we are now consuming more of our own
Looked at in isolation, Irish agri-food exports for the first five months of 2023 are in good shape and compare favourably with last year with the exception of sheepmeat.
However, the lag in dairy export values compared with global market prices suggests we may have seen the best of 2023 in export values.
Beef markets seem to have peaked in May and we await June and July figures with concern. Despite efforts to diversify, our dependence on the UK market has increased to its highest level in recent years and there is a growing view there that Irish prices are dragging theirs down.
Lamb prices have also struggled this year and with the UK open door for Australian and New Zealand exports, it is difficult to be positive about prospects.
The slump in pigmeat production in Europe has boosted pigmeat values to acceptable levels after the nightmare pig farmers lived through in 2022.
Unfortunately, 2023 has a cup half empty feeling with the first five months being the best of it.
A strong first quarter and product switch underpin dairy export values.Dependency on UK for beef exports increases as sales outside Europe plummet.Sheepmeat falls back from an exceptional 2022, with concern for the impact of UK trade deals.Exports down 20% as imports fall by 30% and pig prices increase.
Farmgate prices are the primary focus for farmers in every sector and all have been under pressure over recent weeks and months, with the exception of pigmeat where prices have recovered from the disaster of 2021 and 2022.
The value of our meat and dairy products is shaped by international markets, given that we export around 90% of our total agri-food production.
Looking at the value of our exports gives an indication on the strength or otherwise of these markets though as with all average data, there are several unknown factors that make up this price in addition to what processors pay their farmer suppliers for the raw material supplies of milk, beef, sheep and pigmeat.
Access to market data on value of produce leaving Irish factories is limited to what is published by the CSO on a monthly basis and banded into categories by Bord Bia (see Figures 1 to 4).
The most recent data available is for May, which means we can analyse volume and value performance for the first five months of 2023 and this has been compared with the previous two years on a sector-by-sector basis.
Looking at Figure 1, dairy export values in 2023 are extremely healthy at €2.4bn for the 593,244t exported, which is €4,120 per tonne (t). This compares favourably with the €2.2bn in the same period in 2022 on 583,885t of product, which works out at €3,769t and €1.7bn on 580,064t at €2,995t fromJanuary to May 2021.
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index (Figure 5) shows that world dairy prices surged in 2021 and peaked at 1,593 points in March 2022. Since then, it has been a downward trend dropping below 1,000 points for the first time since November 2020 and currently is at 959 points.
Looked at it in the context of current global dairy markets, Irish exports have performed exceptionally well. However, current average Irish dairy export values aren’t dictated only by current global market values.
David Kennedy, head of dairy in Bord Bia explained to the Irish Farmers Journal that while monthly export values were ahead of last year, they in fact dipped below last year in April and May.
He said that Irish export values tend to lag behind spot market values by a few months, which means that Irish exports were running behind global markets when they were coming to their peak in early 2022 and, this year, the global downturn wasn’t reflected in Irish export values during the first three months.
This changed in April and May and there is little optimism for the immediate future in the dairy trade based on recent global dairy market indicators.
Kennedy also highlighted a change in the product mix of Irish dairy exports in 2023 as a contributor to a higher relative value per tonne than was the case in the same period last year. He said: “In the first quarter this year, butter export values are 20% higher than last year, while cheese was up 13%. Both of these are higher-value products and therefore their greater share of Irish dairy output means a higher overall average dairy price per tonne.”
Looking at the export value data up to May 2023, the Irish beef sector was in good shape. The value of Irish beef exports was €1.051bn for the first five months of the year compared with €1.039bn in the same period last year and €785m in 2021.
Volumes in 2023 were lower at 190,637t compared with 202,370t in the same period last year which makes the value per tonne €5,515 in 2023 compared to €5,136t in the same period last year carcase weight equivalent.
Commenting on the lower volume of exports in 2023, Bord Bia’s beef and livestock sector manager, Joe Burke believes that factories had started freezing lower-value trimmings and flanks in April and May in the belief that they would sell better later in the year but, so far, there is no sign of this happening in either Britain or anywhere in the EU.
At a farm gate level, beef prices were in good shape during the first five months of 2023, peaking at €5.28/kg (excluding vat) during May.
It was only at the end of that month that prices began to fall and that has continued week on week since then.
The Irish beef price lagged behind the UK by around 30c/kg for much of the spring, but this has doubled to over 60c/kg such has been the rapid fall in Irish prices over recent weeks.
The other striking feature of Irish beef exports this year has been the further fall in sales outside the EU and increasing dependence on the UK market.
The UK took just under 50% of Irish beef exports between January and May this year compared with 44.6% last year and 42.6% between January and May 2021. Exports beyond the UK and EU had grown to 13.8% between January and May 2021 but this has plummeted to just 6% in the first five months of this year despite China reopening.
Unlike beef and dairy export values in the first five months, sheepmeat export value showed a drop to €6,092t compared with €6,320t in the first five months of last year and remains just above the €5,990t value in the same period in 2021.
The volume exported in 2023 is closely aligned with last year at 30,392t, and remains well ahead of the 24,780t exported between January and May 2021.
The value of sheepmeat exports this year is €185,162, down from €191,645 in the same period last year.
Although down to 5,906t in the first five months of 2023, the UK is still a significant export market for Irish sheepmeat and this will be under increasing pressure with the UK-New Zealand and UK-Australia trade deals coming into effect from 1 June.
Sales to the EU were in line with 2022 at 21,433t and while exports beyond the EU recovered in 2023 to 3,053t, this figure is still below the 3,184t exported in 2021.
US market
North America is growing slowly at 535t so far this year, with Canada the main market while veterinary certification with the US remains to be finalised.
Pigmeat exports have fallen a substantial 20% to 80,453t between January and May 2023 and the same period in 2021 when over 100,000t was exported.
Sales to Asian markets, particularly China, have fallen dramatically as they recovered from the African swine fever outbreak which decimated their herd. Export value per tonne has increased to €2,444t this year, up from €2,088t last year and just slightly ahead of 2021 values of €2,305t.
After the nightmare pig farmers experienced in 2022, prices are now a relatively healthy €2.23/kg at present and have been on this plateau since May. It is a marked improvement on the disastrous €1.67/kg being paid in May 2022 and in May 2021, all prices excluding vat.
Of course, rising energy and feed prices hit pig production costs hard and this has offset much of the market improvement over the past year.
Less production
Peter Duggan, head of pigs and poultry in Bord Bia, explained that the recent changed fortunes for pig farmers were down to less production in Europe.
“EU production will be down around 21m tonnes, or 10%, between last year and this year. This has meant a 30% drop in Irish imports of pigmeat and, as a result, we are now consuming more of our own
Looked at in isolation, Irish agri-food exports for the first five months of 2023 are in good shape and compare favourably with last year with the exception of sheepmeat.
However, the lag in dairy export values compared with global market prices suggests we may have seen the best of 2023 in export values.
Beef markets seem to have peaked in May and we await June and July figures with concern. Despite efforts to diversify, our dependence on the UK market has increased to its highest level in recent years and there is a growing view there that Irish prices are dragging theirs down.
Lamb prices have also struggled this year and with the UK open door for Australian and New Zealand exports, it is difficult to be positive about prospects.
The slump in pigmeat production in Europe has boosted pigmeat values to acceptable levels after the nightmare pig farmers lived through in 2022.
Unfortunately, 2023 has a cup half empty feeling with the first five months being the best of it.
A strong first quarter and product switch underpin dairy export values.Dependency on UK for beef exports increases as sales outside Europe plummet.Sheepmeat falls back from an exceptional 2022, with concern for the impact of UK trade deals.Exports down 20% as imports fall by 30% and pig prices increase. 
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