Some 79% of farmers surveyed by the Irish Farmers Journal expect their farm income to fall in 2023 and only 4% are anticipating a rise on their 2022 income.

The suckler sector is the most optimistic group to report income fluctuation, with 29% expecting it to stay the same or increase this year. However, most still forecast a fall.

Only 25% of sheep farmers expect at least the same income they made in 2022, a figure which falls to 10% for tillage farmers and 8% for dairy.

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The dairy and tillage sectors are those where farmers are expecting the most severe declines in income too – 56% and 43% of farmers in these sectors, respectively, are anticipating an income hit of more than 20%.

Teagasc

The farmer income predictions come as Teagasc’s mid-year farm income report for 2023 points towards a “sharp fall” in dairy and tillage incomes as input costs remain high, despite falling farm gate prices. Both dairy and tillage farmer incomes could halve on 2022 levels, the analysis shows.

Only half of farmers had expected their income to decline in 2023 when surveyed by the Irish Farmers Journal in December of last year and the negative reporting trends in expected income are mirrored by those seen in farmers’ outlook on the sector.

Outlook

Less than one quarter of farmers reported to currently hold a positive outlook on the farming sector when surveyed.

Sentiment was lowest among cattle finishers, only 16% of whom had a positive outlook on farming. Despite dropping income expectations, dairy farmers had the best outlook.

Farmer outlook on the future has flipped compared with the December survey. Last December, farmers were more optimistic in their outlook for 2023. However, there are now more farmers with a negative outlook.

Inflation biting in Irish farm households

The survey found that the rising cost of living is affecting 98% of Irish farming households.

Some 41% of those who responded to the survey said that rising living costs are impacting them strongly, while a further 34% and 18% reported a moderate and slight impact respectively.

Central Statistics Office (CSO) consumer price index figures published in mid-July show steady price rises since April 2021 and annual inflation of 5% or more recorded in each month since October 2021.