The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) and Quality Meat Scotland (QMS) have released the findings of research they funded with Worldpanel by Numerator UK to estimate the effect of further inflation on beef purchases.
It noted that retail beef inflation climbed to 9.1% in May, which coincided with 3,300 tonnes (t) less beef being bought in the 12-week period to 18 May (Worldpanel by Numerator UK data).
Taking a three-year view - beef price inflation reached a high point of 16% in October 2022 - it is estimated that there would be a loss of sales amounting to 12,500t of retail beef in a 12-week period.
Consumer response
Three types of consumer behaviours are identified in the report as a response to higher product prices. One is buying fewer types of beef cuts, the second is buying less of the same cuts and, finally, those who stop buying beef are typically switch to cheaper proteins such as pork or chicken.
A further consumer behaviour was also identified in consumers responding to higher prices.
This included watching out for and purchasing when promotions or special offers were in place, bulk buying and compromising on product such as switching from more expensive lean mince to cheaper mince with a higher fat content.
The report suggests that suppliers respond to these consumer trends by having a range of pack sizes available so that different price points for shoppers are met.
Giving value is also important and promotions on premium beef cuts and or multi-buy packs are also suggested.
Out-of-home consumption
The AHDB has also done some work on assessing the impact of higher beef prices on out-of-home (OOH) consumption.
The most recent Worldpanel by Numerator UK OOH data is for the period to 15 June 2025. It shows that in the 52 weeks to that point, average prices per pack for beef dishes increased by 7.4%, leading to a volume decline of 3.0% year on year for total beef.
The main loss was in the takeaway sector, where the AHDB estimates volumes were down by 6.7%.
Burgers, which represent 46.5% or almost half of beef food service volumes, were also down, recording a 9.3% fall year on year.
It was more positive for meat-centred meals such as steak and roasts, where volume sales grew by 4.9%. Shoppers for these were buying these dishes more frequently and a larger volume of packs per occasion.
Comment – price dilemma for farmers
The phrase that the cure for high prices is high prices is widely used in economics.
It basically means that high prices mean people buy less and the reduced demand then causes prices to fall.
This isn’t much use for farmers who have, so far in 2025, had beef prices that make its on-farm production more sustainable.
Even with higher prices, nobody is suggesting that beef farming is a way to get rich quickly and if there is a sustained drop in consumer demand or more cheaper beef is imported into the UK, then farmgate prices will come under pressure.
Beef is always a discretionary purchase for shoppers who have cheaper alternatives in poultry or pork. Yet, current farmgate prices are essential to sustain on-farm production, so the ultimate challenge for the supply chain is to convince consumers that while there may be cheaper alternatives, beef is good value for money even if it isn’t cheap.
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) and Quality Meat Scotland (QMS) have released the findings of research they funded with Worldpanel by Numerator UK to estimate the effect of further inflation on beef purchases.
It noted that retail beef inflation climbed to 9.1% in May, which coincided with 3,300 tonnes (t) less beef being bought in the 12-week period to 18 May (Worldpanel by Numerator UK data).
Taking a three-year view - beef price inflation reached a high point of 16% in October 2022 - it is estimated that there would be a loss of sales amounting to 12,500t of retail beef in a 12-week period.
Consumer response
Three types of consumer behaviours are identified in the report as a response to higher product prices. One is buying fewer types of beef cuts, the second is buying less of the same cuts and, finally, those who stop buying beef are typically switch to cheaper proteins such as pork or chicken.
A further consumer behaviour was also identified in consumers responding to higher prices.
This included watching out for and purchasing when promotions or special offers were in place, bulk buying and compromising on product such as switching from more expensive lean mince to cheaper mince with a higher fat content.
The report suggests that suppliers respond to these consumer trends by having a range of pack sizes available so that different price points for shoppers are met.
Giving value is also important and promotions on premium beef cuts and or multi-buy packs are also suggested.
Out-of-home consumption
The AHDB has also done some work on assessing the impact of higher beef prices on out-of-home (OOH) consumption.
The most recent Worldpanel by Numerator UK OOH data is for the period to 15 June 2025. It shows that in the 52 weeks to that point, average prices per pack for beef dishes increased by 7.4%, leading to a volume decline of 3.0% year on year for total beef.
The main loss was in the takeaway sector, where the AHDB estimates volumes were down by 6.7%.
Burgers, which represent 46.5% or almost half of beef food service volumes, were also down, recording a 9.3% fall year on year.
It was more positive for meat-centred meals such as steak and roasts, where volume sales grew by 4.9%. Shoppers for these were buying these dishes more frequently and a larger volume of packs per occasion.
Comment – price dilemma for farmers
The phrase that the cure for high prices is high prices is widely used in economics.
It basically means that high prices mean people buy less and the reduced demand then causes prices to fall.
This isn’t much use for farmers who have, so far in 2025, had beef prices that make its on-farm production more sustainable.
Even with higher prices, nobody is suggesting that beef farming is a way to get rich quickly and if there is a sustained drop in consumer demand or more cheaper beef is imported into the UK, then farmgate prices will come under pressure.
Beef is always a discretionary purchase for shoppers who have cheaper alternatives in poultry or pork. Yet, current farmgate prices are essential to sustain on-farm production, so the ultimate challenge for the supply chain is to convince consumers that while there may be cheaper alternatives, beef is good value for money even if it isn’t cheap.
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