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An industry-wide audience including farmers, meat processors and industry experts packed into the Heritage hotel in Laois on Friday morning for the annual Bord Bia meat marketing seminar.

Rupert Claxton, GIRA meat analysis expert gave his view on global meat trade in 2026 across beef, sheep, pig and poultry markets.

Global disease outbreaks continue to disrupt global trade with chicken supply being particularly affected by animal disease. Bluetongue continues to be a European problem and will continue to have an impact on numbers.

Despite all the negativity around meat consumption, it continues to grow with beef consumption expected to grow by 1% by 2030. There is widespread growth across a number of markets with Asia seeing notable growth in the last few years – and notable growth forecast for the next 5 years

On the supply side, beef production is expected to remain under pressure in 2026 with a 1% drop in global meat production expected in the next 12 months. This is partly driven by cycles impacted by weather in the USA with no recovery expected in numbers for at least two years.

Brazil and Australia are expected to have a lower kill in 2026 based on high prices and higher heifer kills in the last 12 months.

Claxton, on a number of occasions in the last few months has said Mercosur won’t have a huge impact on the European beef trade and he continued on that thread at the Bord Bia Meat marketing seminar on Friday morning.

“Mercosur will be ok, it’s just a fact of life and we have to deal with it” he told the audience in Laois.

He pointed to the big decline in European beef production over the last number of years – down 742,000 tonne since 2019. He cited this as one of the reasons why he believes the extra 99,000 tonne from Europe won’t have an impact on the EU trade.

Regarding the USA, Donald Trump was mentioned in the GIRA expert’s presentation.

“What is going to be the 51st state of America, will it be Greenland or will it be Cuba? The big impact Donald Trump is having – is the uncertainty he has injected into international trade,” Claxton said.

Claxton also referenced the global challenge regarding farm succession, with young people across the globe failing to take up farming as a career.

“Farmer confidence around the world is low. People aren’t building sheds anymore but that’s good for supply in that there aren’t any extra numbers on the market”

He closed with a clear concise message for the audience. “Farm profitability is at the cost of margin and this isn’t sustainable and won’t encourage the next generation to farm”

He added that the EU beef industry is in long term decline and that this decline will result in some restructuring of slaughtering assets, something we have already seen one Irish processor announce this week.