Another week of largely optimistic sentiment with regard to global harvest output has continued to drive grain prices downwards. While there is still real concern with regard to the potential of the 2015 global maize crop in particular, most of the recent market news supported high output levels. And this has acted to depress prices in the absence of any real news to the contrary.

In the past week, we had the US improve the general condition and yield prospects for its spring wheat crop but I notice reports of growing concerns about the presence of mycotoxin (vomotoxin) in winter crops already in store. And in central Europe, output estimates from the Ukrainian and Russian harvests were both increased, which add to their potential to export.

Ultimately we are looking at the annual harvest pressure syndrome. And, in general, crops that have been cut around Europe are better than had been estimated. This is supporting a bullish attitude towards availability and supply, which sets the current market tone with regard to wheat and barley. But there are still concerns for wheat in parts of the world.

On Wednesday, the MATIF wheat price fell below €185/t, having been above €205/t a few weeks ago. Chicago soft red wheat futures for September is just above $5/bushel, having been up at $6/bu at the start of this month.

Native prices are as volatile as market prices, with spot wheat at the moment fluctuating either side of €185/t, depending on the moment, and spot barley generally in the €165 to €170/t range. New crop wheat is currently put in the €182 to €184/t bracket, with new crop barley in the €170/t to €172/t range.