Grain markets have strengthened since the end of last week, mainly in response to the increasing significance of adverse weather events in different parts of the world.

MATIF wheat, which has a direct impact on the pricing structure of our malting barley and is a reasonable indicator of our feed wheat price, has seen its December quote increase from €180/t on 19 June to €202.75/t at the close of business on Tuesday.

This increased by a further €3.75/t by midday on Wednesday, slipped subsequently for a few hours and then rose again. This latter price movement was partly driven by reduced US grain stock estimates, coupled with reduced wheat area estimates in Canada. The net result has been a swing of over €26/t in about 10 days. These increases apply more to new crop than spot grain prices.

Recent EU forecasts suggest a production drop of over 20 million tonnes this harvest, due mainly to drought concerns, high temperatures and a change in the makeup of the planted areas. Wet remains the major problem in the US as it continues to disrupt final maize and soyabean planting and the wheat harvest. And flooding and high river levels are disrupting internal transport links.

Native prices for spot grain are up slightly, with barley benefiting more than wheat. Spot wheat is currently in the €180 to €182/t bracket with barley at €165 to €168/t. November quotes are much stronger, with wheat now at €198/t and barley around €182/t for November. On Wednesday, Glanbia offered €145/t for green barley and €160/t for green wheat for September.

Native oilseed rape is quoted at €407 to €408/t for next November.